Why Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard’s next contract feels terrifying

Evan Bouchard is a terrifying participant who creates terrifying conditions — in additional methods than one.

For opposing groups, he’s one of many league’s scariest gamers from the again finish, a dynamic puck-mover with no worry of leaping into the play with reckless abandon to facilitate offense. He creates odd-numbered conditions for the Oilers that overwhelm defenses, including considerably to Edmonton’s offensive superpower. The specter of his booming shot, the Bouch Bomb, is a real terror.

However for the Oilers, Bouchard can also be one of many league’s scariest gamers from the again finish, with a repute for psychological lapses on the most inopportune occasions, resulting in some actually back-breaking objectives in opposition to. The specter of his rush protection, the Bouch Blunder, can also be a real terror.

The nice scary closely outweighs the dangerous scary to a level that’s usually tremendously understated. Particularly over the past two seasons. It’s just a little little bit of threat for an entire lot of reward. And that’s precisely what results in what some may take into account the scariest Bouchard scenario but: his subsequent contract.

Bouchard — a right-shot franchise defenseman in his prime who performs robust minutes, creates obscene ranges of offense and elevates his recreation within the playoffs — is about to receives a commission a terrifying quantity.

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Bouchard is an advanced participant to research.

His numbers are glowing, however he does play in advantageous conditions. He performs in opposition to robust competitors, however that’s made quite a bit simpler with the assistance he has up entrance (the 2 finest gamers on the planet) and subsequent to him (among the finest shutdown defenders on the planet). His utilization, each offensively and defensively, is less complicated than common. That doesn’t discredit his contributions utterly, however it does have to be thought-about.

Would Bouchard look this sturdy offensively with out feeding Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl? Would he have the ability to deal with robust minutes with out Mattias Ekholm subsequent to him to scrub issues up? As nice as Bouchard’s numbers look most nights, these are legitimate inquiries to ask.

It comes all the way down to expectations, particularly offensively.

What ought to we count on a defenseman who performs quite a bit with McDavid and Draisaitl to do? Primarily based on Bouchard’s uncooked offensive worth, the expectation is that his common teammate would have an Offensive Ranking of plus-4.7, however Bouchard’s teammates had been truly at plus-7.3. That distinction — one of many highest within the league however not dissimilar to Cale Makar’s, for instance — must be accounted for.

Accounted for, however not discredited. It’s not all or nothing for anyone participant on the ice, and there’s a steadiness to be struck. Tyson Barrie’s output in an analogous offensive scenario (whereas being closely sheltered) was considerably much less prolific, particularly at five-on-five.

On the flip aspect, whereas his eye take a look at may be irritating, Bouchard shouldn’t be outlined by his massive errors. On steadiness, the nice issues he does with the puck are value significantly greater than the occasional gaffe. And sure, they’re occasional. Bouchard has grown significantly from the participant he was earlier in his profession, the place these errors happen with far much less frequency as he’s grown accustomed to enjoying larger within the lineup. Reputations may be onerous to shed, and whereas Bouchard has his moments that make doing so tough, they’ve been lessened significantly.

Final yr’s playoffs, when Bouchard was on for simply 1.89 xGA/60 and an equally spectacular 1.87 GA/60, had been a testomony to that. It felt as when you might rely Bouchard’s massive errors on one hand throughout all the run, an train you’d generally want only one recreation for throughout his first few seasons. Bouchard was a giant a part of Edmonton’s march to the Stanley Cup Ultimate, the place he helped the Oilers management the tempo of play each evening.

His defensive numbers on this yr’s playoffs away from Darnell Nurse have been comparably sturdy, not less than in possibilities allowed. The Oilers have allowed 1.78 xGA/60 with Bouchard on the ice, low sufficient to make an .881 on-ice save share manageable, the place the Oilers have solely allowed 2.44 GA/60 with Bouchard on the ice. Whereas that was one thing to think about to a point early in his profession, when he performed mushy minutes given his many defensive errors, he will get a move this time. Contemplating the goalies he’s enjoying in entrance of, who he’s going through and the dearth of Ekholm, permitting 2.44 GA/60 is greater than acceptable. In opposition to Vegas specifically, Bouchard has completely dominated his minutes (9-2 scoreline with 61 p.c of the anticipated objectives).

To sum all of it up, Bouchard is an elite offensive defenseman whose numbers must be discounted a contact for who he will get to play with, however not an excessive amount of. Defensively, he’s grown to be greater than enough and shouldn’t be considered by way of the identical lens because the participant he was in his first few seasons (his projected Defensive Ranking has climbed from minus-3.9 after his rookie season to plus-0.8 right now). However he does have his warts.

That results in somebody the mannequin considers to be a prime 10 defenseman — one whose offensive contributions are surpassed by solely three defenders (Makar, Quinn Hughes, Zach Werenski), however whose defensive capability might be nearer to second-pair caliber.

Bouchard’s projected Web Ranking for subsequent season, on account of his hefty offensive worth, is plus-15. How a lot is that value in a quickly escalating cap world?

That’s the place issues get scary. Once more, in additional methods than one.

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I don’t know if persons are actually ready for a number of the sticker shock that’s about to shortly come on account of an exploding wage cap.

Right here’s an instance of that.

A median No. 1 defenseman is value 10 objectives above common, in accordance with Web Ranking. Sometimes, that’s value round 10.5 p.c of the cap. Let’s name it 10 p.c simply to make issues simpler.

In 2009-10, that meant a $5.7 million contract, because it did for Sergei Gonchar (plus-10.7 Web Ranking, $5.5 million cap hit).

In 2018-19, that meant an $8.0 million contract, because it did for John Carlson (plus-9.4 Web Ranking, $8.0 million cap hit).

In 2025-26, which means a $9.5 million contract. The next yr, it means $10.4 million. The yr after that, it means $11.3 million. And within the 5 years after that, it might imply wherever from $12 million to $14 million, relying on inflation.

If a defenseman can persistently be counted on to be value 10 objectives of worth for the following eight years, we’re speaking a $12 million deal.

One other manner of taking a look at it’s in buying energy. A $9.5 million deal is value 10 p.c of the cap and will get you an average-ish No. 1 defenseman now. By 12 months 8 of a deal, it may very well be value lower than seven p.c of the cap, the place the expectation is a Web Ranking of plus-3.8 — or a low-end No. 2 defenseman.

Bouchard’s start line, as it’s possible you’ll recall, is 15 objectives of worth, which is significantly larger than our instance. That equates to a place to begin of $13.1 million. Put seven years of ageing subsequent to that based mostly on how 26-year-old defenders usually mature in addition to Bouchard’s finest comparables, and also you get this: an absurd and undoubtedly scary $14.5 million valuation. (If you happen to consider the mannequin overrates him by 2.5 objectives per yr, which is truthful sufficient, the valuation drops to $12.7 million.)

That’s based mostly on Bouchard being a prime 10 defenseman now, however nonetheless projecting to be a mean No. 1 by the tip of the deal. He begins out being value 13.7 p.c of the cap (Erik Karlsson signed for 14 p.c in 2019 when he was three years older than Bouchard) and ends at 10.5 p.c. However as a result of the cap goes up so quickly, his common worth over eight years finally ends up being 14.9 p.c of the 2025-26 cap.

Right here’s how that appears subsequent to the expectation that comes with Evolving Hockey’s contract projections: a seemingly extra wise $10.6 million per yr.

That dotted line reveals the expectation that comes with a $10.6 million deal for a defenseman and it’s that giant distinction between Bouchard’s projected output and what’s anticipated of him that’s terrifying … for 31 different groups.

There’s no shot Bouchard will get Draisaitl cash and $11 million might be quite a bit nearer to what he’ll get. That leaves an entire lot of surplus worth for the Oilers, giving a crew with the league’s finest prime finish the flexibleness so as to add to the underside (hopefully higher than they need to date). That’s the way in which to construct a sustainable contender: steep reductions on the prime of the lineup with a purpose to stack the deck elsewhere. It’s what helps make the Panthers and Hurricanes elite groups yr after yr.

The Oilers have had that very same profit because of the paltry by comparability contracts for McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard. And a quickly rising cap atmosphere units the stage for the Oilers to maintain reaping that reward. They already will with Draisaitl, who’s going to be value properly greater than $14 million going ahead (partly as a result of his personal enchancment after the contract was signed, thoughts you). And the identical will seemingly be true on a brand new Bouchard deal. The extra surplus worth a crew has on the books, the less sacrifices they need to make elsewhere. That’s about to be made quite a bit simpler with a rising cap atmosphere.

With that in thoughts, time period size might change into an enormous aggressive benefit, particularly if groups aren’t paying the anticipated premium for future worth. That was definitely the outdated method to do it, particularly to get prices down as future years had been usually cheaper. That may not be the case now, the place future years may very well be costlier — and possibly too costly to suit beneath subsequent yr’s cap. Bouchard’s projected eight-year worth, even after accounting for age results, can be a ten p.c premium on his 2025-26 worth. The maths isn’t mathing, and that would imply a whole lot of future financial savings for groups who go for alternate accounting (i.e., solely contemplating cap percentages for the following three years of certainty).

What that each one means is that the Oilers are in all probability going to get Bouchard for a steal, thanks partly to his worth being arguably larger than his repute and thanks as properly to a rising cap. The longer the deal, the larger the steal.

Having Bouchard and Draisaitl locked up for, say, $25 million for the following eight years can be extremely good worth for the Oilers. And dangerous for each different crew that faces them. As a substitute of needing to sacrifice depth to afford two superstars, the Oilers will as a substitute have an additional $6 million on the books to work with.

That’s if every little thing goes in accordance with plan, in fact.

Nearly as good as Bouchard seems to be now, his subsequent deal nonetheless comes with the chance of who he’ll be going ahead — and there are some probably scary paths forward.

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Bouchard is a little bit of a unicorn within the sense that he’s a participant with out many shut comparables. Few defenders have offered his degree of worth to start with, and those that have had been extra full gamers.

That leaves us solely two above-average comparable 26-year-old defenders: John Klingberg and Kris Letang. Actually a worst and finest case situation.

At his absolute peak, Klingberg was pretty just like Bouchard. He possessed elite offensive expertise and puck-moving capability whereas enjoying usually with two of the sport’s finest forwards. He additionally elevated his recreation to new heights come playoff time, as evidenced by his work in 2019 and 2020. His defensive play on the time was generally questionable, however largely satisfactory. The nice tremendously outweighed the dangerous, sufficient to make Klingberg an especially useful defenseman.

Now, think about the world of ache the Stars may nonetheless be in right now if Klingberg had been a free agent in 2018 or 2019 as a substitute of 2022. That’s the largest concern the Oilers face: What if Bouchard falls off as shortly and swiftly as Klingberg did? Klingberg went from being a plus-16 defender to a below-average one within the span of simply 5 years (although accidents definitely helped velocity up that course of).

The identical might simply as simply be mentioned about Letang, who for a whole decade was an ideal image of consistency for the Penguins. From 2012 to 2022, solely Karlsson scored extra factors per recreation than Letang’s 0.81 amongst defensemen. Throughout that stretch, Letang was dominant at five-on-five, enjoying robust minutes — with the occasional massive mistake, in fact. Whereas he was at all times within the shadow of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, there’s little doubt Letang was a giant piece of the puzzle there.

Now think about what that decade of Penguins hockey would seem like with out Letang. Sure, they gained a Cup with out him, however additionally they weren’t profitable in 2016 with out him, given his efficiency that yr. And the distinction between these two variations of the Penguins was evident all through the run. The 2016 winners dominated each step of the way in which, and the 2017 winners felt like a miracle given the protection corps. By Web Ranking, Letang was thought-about a prime 10 defender in virtually each one in every of his subsequent eight seasons after he turned 26.

If the Oilers knew Bouchard would age precisely like Klingberg, they’d transfer off him (or signal a short-term deal). In the event that they knew Bouchard would age precisely like Letang, he may already be signed. The immense chasm between these two potentialities is what makes signing Bouchard long-term so tough.

There are different below-average comparables that may assist fill within the hole; apparently, pure offensive defenders who didn’t have Bouchard’s upside and had been much more of an journey defensively. Whether or not it’s lower-tier guys relative to Bouchard (Mike Inexperienced, P.Okay. Subban, Dougie Hamilton) or the intense poor-man’s variations (Shayne Gostisbehere, Kevin Shattenkirk, Torey Krug), it’s clear these defensemen are of a kind. That’s excellent news for our functions; the similarity calculator did its job. Nevertheless it is perhaps dangerous information for the Oilers as a result of it’s not a kind that ages properly.

On common, a 26-year-old defender is predicted to lose 2.1 objectives of offensive worth over the next eight years and 1.0 objectives of defensive worth. Bouchard’s 10 finest comps misplaced 6.1 objectives of offensive worth and a pair of.1 objectives of defensive worth as a substitute. Letang could be the exception to the rule.

There are two key issues to notice right here.

The primary is a reminder that Bouchard may be very distinctive. That there are solely two above-average comps speaks to that (not even nice comps at that), and it’s useful to know one in every of them was a rock star for the following decade and the opposite had well being issues that could be unfair to mission onto Bouchard.

The second is that Bouchard is ranging from a better degree, which implies he has much more room to fall. Even when he ages as poorly as the typical of his 10 finest comps, his worth nonetheless is available in at $12.5 million. Primarily, take into account him a wealthy man’s Hamilton (whose contract can be the equal of $10.5 million in right now’s atmosphere) and he’s in all probability fantastic.

That helps alleviate a number of the threat issue of signing Bouchard to a giant deal, as does the data that the cap goes up. Nevertheless it’s not sufficient to utterly flip off the worry issue that comes with signing Bouchard to a max-term deal.

The Letang Path could arguably be the most probably given the circumstances, however the crimson flags branching off from it aren’t precisely comforting. Bouchard’s numbers could make a giant contract look like a no brainer, however as with every little thing surrounding Bouchard, it’s by no means fairly that straightforward.

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The off-ice Bouchard contract conundrum is a microcosm for the on-ice Bouchard conundrum.

There’s a superb likelihood the Oilers will get a Bouch Bomb out of it, an absolute dwelling run given his present-day worth and the unlikelihood that Bouchard indicators a deal that approximates his on-ice affect. The small threat might be definitely worth the massive reward.

However the small likelihood of the Oilers getting a Bouch Blunder merely can’t be ignored, and is totally terrifying. The crimson flags surrounding the way in which his archetypes normally age, to not point out a number of the considerations surrounding his recreation to start with, must be thought-about. Even when it’s small, there’s nonetheless threat in a long-term deal, maybe greater than with a equally useful participant.

Does that threat outweigh the potential reward that Bouchard might carry for the following eight years on a mispriced contract? With Bouchard, isn’t that at all times the query? Danger vs. reward.

During the last two years, the chance in Bouchard’s recreation has been properly definitely worth the reward. There isn’t any query about that, because the Oilers are a a lot better crew with him on the ice. We bought proof of that within the crew’s 2024 Cup Ultimate run, and we’re getting extra of it this yr with the crew one win away from the convention finals.

Now the Oilers should resolve if the identical will probably be true after they put ink to paper — and for a way lengthy. Time period size may very well be a aggressive benefit in a quickly rising cap atmosphere, however for Bouchard, the specter of poor ageing means it is perhaps higher to be secure than sorry.

With Bouchard, the risk-reward ratio is at all times the highest factor to think about, and that’s by no means been extra true than when taking a look at his subsequent deal. Will or not it’s a Bouch Bomb or a Bouch Blunder? My cash is on the previous as there’s normally extra good scary than dangerous scary. However the specter of dangerous scary nonetheless lingers.

— Knowledge through Evolving Hockey, Pure Stat Trick and PuckPedia

(Prime picture: Perry Nelson / Imagn Photos)