UFC Vegas 106 predictions – MMA Fighting

Gilbert Burns is clutching on to that torch.

It’s been 4 years since Burns fought for and did not seize the UFC welterweight title, and although the 38-year-old veteran has bounced again from that disappointment, time has caught up with him and he finds himself on the primary three-fight skid of his profession. That stoop threatens to proceed Saturday when Burns meets the undefeated Michael Morales within the UFC Vegas 106 principal occasion.

This can be a large alternative for Morales. At 17-0 (5-0 within the UFC), Morales appears all of the world like a future champion and he’s made a behavior of beating extra skilled fighters along with his previous three wins coming in opposition to Neil Magny, Jake Matthews, and Max Griffin. A prime 10 rating awaits him if he beats Burns as anticipated, although “Durinho” shouldn’t be counted out so simply.

In different principal card motion, Paul Craig places his job on the road in opposition to Rodolfo Bellato, Sodiq Yusuff and Mairon Santos combat in a light-weight bout, Dustin Stoltzfus and Nursulton Ruziboev chase a spotlight, and streaking featherweights Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa open the present.

What: UFC Vegas 106

The place: UFC APEX in Las Vegas

When: Saturday, Could 17. The seven-fight preliminary card begins at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, adopted by a five-fight principal card at 7 p.m. ET additionally on ESPN+.

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Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales

Let’s be clear about one factor: Gilbert Burns can win this combat. He simply wants quite a bit to go his method if he’s going at hand Michael Morales his first defeat.

Grappling-wise, we all know Burns can maintain enterprise. If he’s capable of get this combat down early, he can sap lots of Morales’ energy and mitigate the scale distinction. Take into account, this can be a five-round combat, so the extra rounds Burns can financial institution early the higher. Morales’ fuel tank is untested and dragging him into deep waters ought to be key for Burns’ recreation plan.

Burns nonetheless has loads of pop in his fingers, too, so he gained’t be out of solutions ought to this combat break down right into a brawl. However he’s higher off not going the putting route.

Morales is so essentially stable and has such clever putting, with beautiful footwork and well-timed feints used to arrange his flashier methods. His athleticism additionally permits him to cowl up errors rapidly, and that features Burns doubtlessly placing him on his again. Simply once you suppose Morales is on the defensive, he explodes out of hazard and turns issues round. And as soon as he begins rolling downhill, there’s no stopping him.

Burns has proven he can nonetheless compete with the most effective, however he’s undeniably misplaced a step. He’s 13 years older than Morales and what’s extra important is the distinction in in-cage mileage, to not point out the hours within the gymnasium. If this had been Burns from two or three years in the past, that is nearer to a toss-up. Because it stands, Morales is closely favored for a cause.

Morales by choice.

Choose: Morales

Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato

It’s enjoyable to root for Rodolfo Bellato. The brutish Brazilian’s first two UFC fights have been pure chaos and he actually appears at occasions to have prime 15 expertise, although it’s laborious to totally get behind that when he takes a lot injury in his fights. Maybe he’ll be extra methodical in opposition to Paul Craig.

Craig has no illusions in regards to the stakes of this combat. Win and you may count on to see him within the octagon once more. Lose and his UFC run is donezo.

He did no favors for himself with a listless efficiency in opposition to Bo Nickal, a consequence that appears even worse given Nickal’s personal struggles. Craig has additionally been a sluggish starter for a lot of his profession and the very last thing he ought to do is permit Bellato to set the tempo.

Bellato goes to come back out with severe hearth as ordinary and I doubt Craig will writer a comeback, which was once his specialty. I foresee an enormous knockout for “Trator.”

Choose: Bellato

Sodiq Yusuff vs. Mairon Santos

Mairon Santos undoubtedly isn’t taking the straightforward path after profitable The Final Fighter 32. “The Legend” (that’s proper, you alter your identify again, Ilia Topuria!) makes a fast turnaround after combating in March and he does so up a division up in opposition to Sodiq Yusuff, an opponent with much more UFC expertise. Possibly that is some form of self-imposed penance after he obtained away with a choice in opposition to Francis Marshall, however he must be cautious or his appreciable promise might be stifled.

Yusuff’s bounce as much as 155 kilos is seemingly a everlasting transfer and that makes me fear for Santos much more, as a result of that means Yusuff has correctly bulked up for this matchup. He’s at all times had good putting whilst knockouts have eluded him, and eradicating a troublesome weight lower from the equation may open up his recreation. With further vitality, Yusuff can let his fingers go early and with reckless abandonment (h/t Dominick Cruz).

I’m in all probability being too protected with my expectations for Santos, however I’ve seen Yusuff give too many stable fighters suits to choose in opposition to him right here. That’s proper, I’m not placing my religion in a current TUF champions.

Ashamed.

Choose: Yusuff

Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Nursulton Ruziboev

This one goes to be a trainwreck.

You don’t name Dustin Stoltzfus until you need a combat to finish inside the space and the could be mentioned of Nursulton Ruziboev. The pair have their fair proportion of selections on their résumés, however tonight you possibly can count on them to satisfy within the center and throw fingers.

That’s the most effective situation for Stoltzfus, who scored a shocking knockout of Marc-Andre Barriault in November when the Canadian determined to slug it out with Stoltzfus in opposition to the fence. Moments later, Stoltzfus was celebrating a first-round knockout.

He’ll have Ruziboev coming straight at him so the alternatives will probably be there for Stoltzfus to steal the combat, however Ruziboev’s accuracy and ferocity ought to win out. He’ll sting Stoltzfus on the ft after which put him away with ground-and-pound or a submission on the mat.

Choose: Ruziboev

Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa

Wonderful matchmaking right here, pitting two veteran featherweights with under-the-radar win streaks in opposition to each other.

Julian Erosa is the extra acquainted face to most followers, having been on his grind for 15 years and having earned a fame for being a troublesome out. Whether or not on the ft or the bottom, the rangy and versatile Erosa can provide any opponent a headache.

Melquizel Costa has been doing his finest to make up for misplaced time since making his UFC debut in 2023. He’s presently driving a three-fight win streak and might make it 4 wins in 11 months if he will get previous Erosa.

It’s not often fairly with Costa, although his capability to battle again from adversity is certainly one of his finest attributes. The identical can’t be mentioned of Erosa, who tends to fall flat within the first when he’s off his recreation. Then again, Erosa additionally has loads of first-round finishes to his identify.

I’m leaning in the direction of Erosa right here, as I feel this one goes previous the primary 5 minutes and I like his high-level expertise to hold him to a victory. “Juicy J” takes it on factors after three rounds of back-and-forth motion.

Choose: Erosa

Preliminaries

Matheus Camilo def. Gabe Inexperienced

Thiago Moises def. Jared Gordon

Yadier del Valle def. Connor Matthews

Tainara Lisboa def. Luana Santos

Denise Gomes def. Elise Reed

Hyun Sung Park def. Carlos Hernandez

Tecia Pennington def. Luana Pinheiro