UFC Fight Night: Expert picks and best bets for Burns vs. Morales

Former UFC welterweight title challenger Gilbert Burns makes his first Octagon look of 2025 when he squares off with undefeated Michael Morales in the primary occasion at UFC Struggle Night time on Saturday (ESPN+, 7 p.m. ET most important card, 4 p.m. prelims).

Burns, ESPN’s No. 8-ranked welterweight, enters the combat searching for his first victory since April 2023, when he beat Jorge Masvidal by unanimous determination at UFC 287. He has misplaced every of his final three fights, together with a unanimous determination loss to Sean Brady final September.

Morales, unranked by ESPN, has gained six straight fights within the UFC. Most lately, he beat Neil Magny by first-round knockout final August.

Brett Okamoto spoke to Xtreme Couture MMA coach Eric Nicksick to get his perspective on the UFC most important occasion. ESPN betting knowledgeable Ian Parker provides perception and evaluation on the primary occasion and different intriguing bets he likes on the cardboard.

Editor’s be aware: Responses have been edited for brevity and readability.

Welterweight: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales

Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach

How Burns wins: Burns’ recreation plans typically revolve round strain, clinch entries and grappling. Morales has an 8-inch attain benefit, so Gilbert cannot play the vary recreation. He is bought to shut distance behind feints and massive degree modifications, and crash the pocket. He might strive a double jab into the physique lock or a low kick right into a takedown. As soon as he is completed that, his grappling is world-class. Burns has to make Morales respect the takedown makes an attempt and provides him the specter of again publicity or prime strain. That menace alone will gradual Morales’ placing output. If this turns into a unclean, grind-it-out combat previous Spherical 2, it favors Gilbert. He is been in that deep water earlier than, however Morales hasn’t.

How Morales wins: It is about self-discipline, footwork and sticking to the basics. Burns is explosive, however he is a bit linear. Morales can decide him off with straight punches and low kicks. Morales has additionally proven stable stability and hips in his takedown protection. If he stuffs Gilbert’s pictures early within the combat, he’ll begin to construct confidence. As soon as Morales will get in rhythm, his output can snowball quick. He has benefits on this combat, however Burns will attempt to drag him into chaotic sequences. Morales cannot get grasping. If he fights with endurance and avoids the bottom, he’ll have the cleaner work.

X issue: Composure in transition. This combat will swing throughout these cut up seconds the place vary collapses. Can Morales hold his composure when Burns blitzes?

Prediction: Morales to win by late TKO or determination. However this combat will take a look at his maturity. If he passes, he is for actual.

Betting evaluation

Odds correct as of publication. For probably the most up-to-date odds, go to ESPN BET.

Parker: Morales to win by KO/TKO (-130). Morales, a blue chip prospect who ranked No. 3 on ESPN’s MMA 25 beneath 25 listing in 2023, will get his first UFC most important occasion in opposition to the all the time powerful Burns. As a heavy favourite, Morales is anticipated to steamroll Burns, and I do not disagree. Burns is at his finest when he takes his opponent down and makes use of his jiu-jitsu to regulate the combat. Nevertheless, Morales has impeccable takedown protection and is probably going the higher wrestler. He’s additionally the extra bodily imposing athlete. Search for Morales to efficiently stuff Burns’ takedown makes an attempt and finally get the TKO win.

Parker’s finest bets on the remainder of the cardboard

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Julian Erosa makes use of a first-round submission to take a win over Ricardo Ramos

Julian Erosa will get Ricardo Ramos with a guillotine choke within the first spherical to take residence a win by submission.

Middleweight: Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Nursulton Ruziboev

Ruziboev to win (-320), beneath 2.5 rounds. Ruziboev is getting the proper matchup in opposition to Stoltzfus to start out a brand new profitable streak within the Octagon. Whereas Stoltzfus is coming off a knockout win of his personal, he’s liable to getting tagged early and infrequently, and in opposition to Ruziboev, that could be a recipe for getting knocked out. With Ruziboev at present sitting as a close to -300 favourite, put him in your parlay. If you happen to’d somewhat take him as a separate play, take him to win and beneath 2.5 rounds to get higher odds.

Featherweight: Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa

Struggle doesn’t go the gap. This has each alternative to be combat of the night time. These two fighters all the time deliver the motion. Erosa has a kill-or-be-killed mentality with an 84% end fee when he wins. In losses, his contests have a 64% end fee. For Costa, 4 of his six UFC appearances have ended by end. This combat will go considered one of two methods: Both Costa succumbs to the strain and quantity of Erosa, or Costa catches Erosa in a submission following a mistake. Both approach, this combat does not make it to the ultimate bell.

Strawweight: Tecia Pennington vs. Luana Pinheiro

Pennington to win by determination. Pinheiro is on a three-fight shedding streak, and it is laborious to think about she does not undergo a fourth loss right here. Because the combat goes on, if it does not go in Pinheiro’s favor, she tends to fade. Pennington has an countless fuel tank and is the higher fighter anyplace the combat goes. This matchup screams Pennington profitable by determination.