UFC Des Moines predictions, odds, full card preview: Is Cory Sandhagen still a title threat?

It has been 25 years because the UFC held an occasion in Iowa, however for UFC Des Moines, the promotion determined to ship the products.

We name it like we see it round right here. Prime to backside, Saturday’s fisticuff pageant is fairly rattling good — particularly for right now’s Struggle Night time requirements. I am totally right here for it. In case you’re a hardcore fan, you ought to be hunkered down and able to rumble from battle No. 1 all the best way to the high-octane bantamweight most important occasion, which options high contenders Cory Sandhagen and former flyweight champ Deiveson Figueiredo trying to rebound from losses and preserve their names close to title rivalry.

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The principle card additional highlights the globally distinctive 135-pound expertise pool with two different compelling matchups, but it surely’s the co-main occasion that may inform us lots at 185 kilos. Former two-division ONE Championship titleholder Reinier de Ridder has blazed to a fast 2-0 document within the Octagon, and now plans at hand uber-prospect Bo Nickal his first loss.

That is all with out mentioning the UFC returns of former bantamweight champion Miesha Tate and fan-favorite slugger Jeremy Stephens. In different phrases, UFC Des Moines is a ripper.

We have not accomplished this but with MMA right here at Uncrowned, however as the person on the weekly WWE opinions, I am making an govt choice: I give UFC Des Moines’ lineup a Crown grade of: B+.

Let’s look deeper into who comes out with their fingers raised and why.

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Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

135 kilos: Cory Sandhagen (-550) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (+400)

Does anybody else suppose it nonetheless feels bizarre that Figueiredo is a bantamweight regardless of gearing up for his fifth battle within the division? But the previous two-time flyweight champion has been a serious participant right here, dealing with everybody in his method except for former champ Petr Yan in his final outing. I admittedly had extra religion in Figueiredo than I ought to’ve going into that battle, but it surely was a tough, tough matchup.

Figueiredo, 37, has relied rather more on his grappling as a bantamweight than at 125 kilos. After a beautiful inside journey takedown early towards Yan, Figueiredo’s success vanished as he turned outpaced with quantity and superior boxing. Though Figueiredo by no means acquired too snug at any level, he upped his aggression because the rounds handed, exhibiting flashes of his classic championship self by flattening Yan within the fourth. The man is all the time harmful.

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On the opposite facet, we’ve got one of many division’s most versatile strikers in Sandhagen. Whereas that is nonetheless rightfully seen as Sandhagen’s space of experience, his wrestling has turn into wildly under-appreciated, and his August 2024 loss to Umar Nurmagomedov solely additional pushed that stigma.

That is not too honest, although, contemplating how nicely “The Sandman” did defensively Nurmagomedov. However a loss is a loss, and Sandhagen won’t have many extra climbs again up the mountain in him if he falls quick once more at UFC Des Moines.

Sandhagen will make the most of his monstrous size benefit over the a lot shorter Figueiredo, and we’ll absolutely see some enjoyable scrambles all through the 25-minute affair, with the Brazilian searching for management. In the end, I anticipate this to look comparatively much like the Yan battle for Figueiredo. Until he begins sooner, this might be a protracted evening of slicing and dicing from Sandhagen, who can have a area day like he did towards Tune Yadong three years in the past.

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Decide: Sandhagen.

185 kilos: Reinier de Ridder (+260) vs. Bo Nickal (-325)

As many commenters and responders say each day in response to an excessively considerate social media publish, “It ain’t that deep, bro.”

I might like to get down and soiled, diving into the nitty gritty of this matchup and why “RDR” is the person. The UFC matchmakers have considerably disrespected him together with his reserving to date — however this battle with Nickal is simply going to be a repeat of the latter’s latest win over Paul Craig.

Do not get me mistaken, de Ridder is a superior fighter to Craig — and arguably one of the best grappler at 185 kilos. On the ft, nonetheless, he is simply not that menacing and he is aware of it.

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What did Nickal do towards Craig? He averted grappling in any respect prices and did not shoot a single takedown regardless of possessing really phenomenal wrestling skills.

Nickal is a brilliant dude, and although most individuals consider he might’ve dealt with Craig on the bottom, he did not trouble — as a result of he did not must. So would you like me to consider he’ll attempt his hand towards an much more harmful submission artist in de Ridder? Yeah, I feel I am going to go purchase that land over there.

Decide: Nickal.

170 kilos: Santiago Ponzinibbio (-135) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+110)

Do you know Santiago Ponzinibbio and Daniel Rodriguez are each 38 years outdated? The latter is information to me. “D-Rod” has one way or the other quietly drifted into weathered veteran standing. On the opposite facet, Ponzibbio is in that very same boat, however nonetheless carrying absolute heaters for fingers — as Carlston Harris felt in brutal trend this previous January.

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Rodriguez has been identified for his strong boxing expertise all through his welterweight run, but it surely might be argued that he is actually 0-5 in his previous 5 since his Kevin Lee win in 2021. One thing simply is not clicking the identical anymore, and he is been frequently overwhelmed by extra balanced fighters, forcing Rodriguez to fade down the stretch. Or perhaps it is simply that complete sneaky age issue I discussed off the highest.

Both method, “Ponzi” is not the right definition of a got-or-get-got fighter, however the man would not go away and is all the time on the hunt. His vicious leg kicks are a nightmare for an opponent with a heavy lead leg and boxing-based offense.

Decide: Ponzinibbio.

135 kilos: Montel Jackson (-200) vs. Daniel Marcos (+165)

Montel Jackson has quietly turn into among the best fighters at 135 kilos, stacking a streak of 5 UFC wins forward of his collision with Daniel Marcos.

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The undefeated Marcos (17-0, 1 NC) has been stellar, however is beginning to expertise the checks the UFC degree delivers past Peru’s regional scene. Marcos picked up an enormous cut up choice win over the battle-tested Adrian Yanez in December, proving he can cling with these gifted low-key monsters at bantamweight.

Jackson, 33, is simply so bodily imposing for the load class at 5-foot-10 with a 75.5-inch attain. He has clubbing sledgehammers for fists and can absolutely make contact on the reckless Marcos. Jackson can also be able to taking opponents down — and his massive body arguably makes him much more difficult for his opponents to do comparable.

If Jackson can return to an energetic charge of competing greater than annually, he’ll be difficult some top-15 opposition sooner slightly than later.

Decide: Jackson.

135 kilos: Cameron Smotherman (+110) vs. Serhiy Sidey (-135)

I am nonetheless not notably excessive on Cameron Smotherman or Serhiy Sidey but. This has the texture of a type of Contender Collection showcase bouts, pitting two winners towards one another within the Octagon. Although Smotherman failed in his try to earn a contract in 2023, he is been banging on all cylinders since with 4 straight wins, together with his spectacular short-notice debut choice over Jake Hadley.

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Smotherman, 27, has been extra constant together with his latest performances and seems to be discovering a rhythm together with his type. Sidey is arguably the extra harmful of the 2, packing some strong energy to fret about, however his cut up choice win over Garrett Armfield in November simply gave me an excessive amount of pause to favor him on this matchup.

Decide: Smotherman.

155 kilos: Jeremy Stephens (+425) vs. Mason Jones (-600)

Alright, I am rather more of a “head over heart” man lately, however in relation to Jeremy Stephens’ sudden 2025 UFC return, I am going coronary heart. “Lil Heathen” has already been making magic, so why soar off this momentum practice now?

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Stephens, 38, appears legitimately extra assured in himself than ever earlier than, and it is paid off in ridiculous methods as he turned a bare-knuckle boxing sensation post-PFL. The native Iowan has all the time carried violent energy and intentions, and whereas Mason Jones ought to win this battle, whether or not by outwrestling or grinding out Stephens earlier than a thumping end, I will not be the one to kill this vibe, OK?

Decide: Stephens.

Preliminary notes

Miesha Tate fell off the face of the planet after her dominant return to bantamweight towards Julia Avila in late 2023. I am nonetheless unsure what was up with that, however I’ve refused to overlook a “Cupcake” contest since she satisfied many into believing ladies’s MMA was legit and definitely worth the mild of day along with her extremely epic Julie Kedzie comeback win in 2012. If you have not seen that battle, go and do yourself a favor right now. Due to her legendary standing and the state of the bantamweight division, a win over Yana Santos might put the 38-year-old Tate nearer to a title shot than anybody would’ve anticipated in 2025.

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Former high strawweight contender Marina Rodriguez can also be again in motion after a spell of back-to-back cut up choice losses that simply might’ve gone her method. The oddsmakers are exhibiting the Brazilian some absolute disrespect towards Gillian Robertson, but it surely’s comprehensible contemplating the optics and Rodriguez’s traditionally suspect takedown protection. She’ll seemingly want a win to avoid wasting her job right here.

There’s one thing like in each battle at UFC Des Moines. (Aside from the heavyweights.)

Fast picks:

• Miesha Tate (-145) def. Yana Santos (+120)

• Ryan Loder (+310) def. Azamat Bekoev (-400)

• Marina Rodriguez (+260) def. Gillian Robertson (-325)

• Gaston Bolanos (-140) def. Quang Le (+115)

• Thomas Peterson (-285) def. Don’Story Mayes (+230)

• Juliana Miller (+185) def. Ivana Petrovic (-225)