NBA playoffs 2025 – Why Wolves’ offensive evolution is stalling in West finals

The Minnesota Timberwolves had been reeling on the finish of February.

They’d simply misplaced to the league’s worst staff, the Utah Jazz, in a sport by which Anthony Edwards was suspended for exceeding the NBA’s technical foul restrict. They had been caught with a 32-29 file, ninth within the West, and their huge offseason commerce of Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo seemed like a bust.

In sum, Minnesota had seemingly regressed from upstart convention finalist to also-ran, and the franchise was coping with an ongoing possession dispute for good measure.

However in March, a change flipped contained in the Goal Heart. Over the remainder of the common season, the Timberwolves went 17-4, rising out of the play-in morass to the No. 6 seed. They beat the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors in 5 video games apiece — eliminating LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Jimmy Butler III and the injured Stephen Curry alongside the way in which — to return to the Western Convention finals. They even resolved their long-simmering possession fracas.

And though the Timberwolves misplaced Recreation 1 of the convention finals in a blowout in opposition to the No. 1 seed Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder, they’ve proved they don’t seem to be your common No. 6 seed. As an alternative, they’ve a strong likelihood to grow to be simply the third No. 6 seed in NBA historical past to achieve the championship spherical, becoming a member of the 1995 Houston Rockets, who gained the Finals, and the 1981 Rockets, who misplaced there.

Forward of Recreation 2 of the West finals (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), let’s look at how the Timberwolves turned their season round, the celebrities who’ve stepped up and the way precisely the top-seeded Thunder took all of it away.

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A brand new power emerges

From March 1, the Timberwolves had the second-best file (17-4) and level differential (plus-11.4) within the NBA.

To be honest, they benefited from a straightforward schedule. Based on ESPN Analytics, Minnesota had the league’s second-easiest schedule in March and April, and the common staff would’ve been anticipated to put up a plus-2.6 level differential in that stretch.

Nonetheless, Minnesota’s plus-8.8 schedule-adjusted level differential over that span (11.4 minus 2.6) would have rated close to the highest of the league. The Timberwolves’ late-season surge was extra a mirrored image of their strengths than their opponents’ weaknesses.

The gas that powered that surge was a shock, although. Since buying and selling for Rudy Gobert in 2022, the Timberwolves have usually embraced a defensive id; final season, they led the league in defensive ranking, however ranked simply seventeenth on offense. So when their protection declined from elite to merely good this season, the staff tumbled within the standings.

Minnesota’s protection did not change a lot throughout the scorching streak: It ranked sixth via February and seventh in March and April. However the staff’s offensive rank rose from thirteenth on the finish of February to second in March and April; solely the Thunder scored extra effectively than Minnesota over that span.

The Timberwolves’ offense improved largely due to success on the rim. Throughout their 21-game surge, the Timberwolves took the fewest midrange photographs within the league, per Cleansing the Glass, as they made a extra concerted effort to assault the basket.

That method has carried over to the playoffs, the place Minnesota ranks second in rim fee (behind the Detroit Pistons) and final in midrange frequency. By means of the primary two rounds of the playoffs, the Timberwolves generated essentially the most factors per 100 possessions off drives, in keeping with GeniusIQ, signaling their aggression contained in the paint.

Additionally they improved on their ending as soon as they arrived on the rim. The Timberwolves ranked twenty first in subject purpose share on dunks and layups earlier than March, per GeniusIQ, however they’re as much as sixth place since then.

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A surging star: Randle finds his groove

No participant symbolizes the Timberwolves’ rise higher than Randle, who spent most of his debut season in Minnesota struggling to fill the void left by Cities’ departure.

Though Randle entered the season with a horrible playoff résumé — throughout two postseason runs as a Knick, he shot 34% from the sector and had extra turnovers than assists — he had all the time been a dependable regular-season presence. In his final 4 seasons in New York, Randle made three All-Star groups and obtained two All-NBA nods.

However he is not a one-for-one alternative for Cities; Randle is a greater playmaker than the 7-footer, however a a lot worse shooter who’s extra methodical on the ball. Till March, he struggled to mesh that novel talent set inside Minnesota’s present offensive infrastructure, which generally deferred to Edwards and Mike Conley to provoke actions.

But by the point he returned from a proper adductor pressure initially of March, Randle had sufficient reps to slot in higher. And he employed the traditional, time-tested “shoot better” technique, dramatically bettering from each 2- and 3-point vary. His scorching streak has continued within the playoffs.

Earlier than March, Randle was averaging 0.92 factors per isolation, per GeniusIQ, which ranked 53rd out of 64 gamers with at the least 150 isolations. However since then, Randle is averaging 1.12 factors per isolation, which ranks sixth amongst 21 gamers with at the least 150 performs and locations him subsequent to star scorers like Jalen Brunson, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The opposite former Knick who joined Randle within the commerce additionally discovered his legs because the season went on. By means of his first 25 video games in Minnesota, DiVincenzo had made simply 32% of his 3-pointers, and although he rose to 37% by mid-January, a toe pressure stored him out of the lineup for greater than a month.

However after DiVincenzo returned, he made a scorching 45% of his 3-point tries, which was even higher than the Timberwolves anticipated after they added him to their perimeter rotation final fall. Abruptly, a once-rotten commerce seemed splendid, as all the important thing components had been flourishing for his or her new groups.

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How OKC neutralizes the Wolves’ offense

This is the unhealthy information for Minnesota, which has been the second-best staff within the NBA since March. The staff with the finest metrics since March? The Thunder, after all, with a 20-3 file and plus-13.3 level differential to shut the common season, whereas enjoying a a lot harder schedule than Minnesota.

That comparability underscores the tough matchup the Timberwolves face within the convention finals — even at their finest, they nonetheless could not fairly maintain tempo.

In Recreation 1 within the convention finals, Randle stored up his finish of the cut price, scoring a team-high 28 factors on stellar 9-for-13 capturing. (One help versus 5 turnovers damage his total stat line, nevertheless.)

The Thunder shut off every little thing else that had powered Minnesota’s offense over the previous two-plus months. The Timberwolves scored simply 20 factors within the paint in Recreation 1, which is lower than half their earlier low within the postseason, and is tied for the bottom output for any staff in a playoff sport since 2016-17, in keeping with NBA Superior Stats.

As a result of Oklahoma Metropolis’s perimeter defenders are higher than their counterparts on the Lakers and Warriors, the Thunder can persist with the Timberwolves’ drivers, forcing awkward passes again out to the perimeter as an alternative of high-percentage makes an attempt on the rim.

“They clogged the paint,” Edwards stated after the sport. “That’s what they do. They don’t got much size down there, so they bank on us not making shots, I guess. Because every time I go to the rim, it’s like four people in the paint.”

The Thunder are joyful to give up 3-pointers, rating twenty eighth in opponent 3-point fee within the common season, per Cleansing the Glass. And the Timberwolves are joyful to take them, placing up 51 3 triples in Recreation 1. Whether or not the Timberwolves can come again to upset the No. 1 seed might hinge on whether or not they could make the Thunder pay for that method.

Sadly, most of their shooters have gone chilly on the mistaken time. Even in sequence wins in opposition to the Lakers and Warriors, Minnesota gained regardless of its poor 3-point capturing. The 5 Timberwolves who take 3s aside from Edwards and Randle — DiVincenzo, Conley, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker — shot a collective 38% from distance within the common season however have declined to 32% within the playoffs. Out of 48 gamers who’ve tried at the least 40 3-pointers within the playoffs, Conley ranks forty third, Alexander-Walker ranks forty sixth and DiVincenzo ranks forty eighth in quantified shot making, per GeniusIQ, which measures a participant’s precise shot accuracy in comparison with his anticipated accuracy.

In concept, their luck ought to regress to the norm quickly, which means extra made 3s are on the way in which. However that backcourt trio mixed to go simply 6-for-26 from distance in Recreation 1 in opposition to the Thunder, who had been content material to wall off the paint and, as Edwards stated, financial institution on Minnesota’s ice-cold shooters staying that approach.

For Minnesota to attain sufficient to beat the Thunder and attain the primary Finals in franchise historical past, they have to examine three packing containers:

• Randle should maintain enjoying one of the best high-stakes basketball of his profession.

• The position gamers should begin capturing extra like they did within the common season.

• Edwards should fulfill his position because the main star on this staff.

The Thunder current a tough matchup for him, nevertheless — and never simply because, with Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso, they’re properly outfitted to shadow his each transfer with a number of all-world defenders.

Edwards took a serious step ahead past the arc this season, as he led the league in whole 3-pointers with 320 and made 39.5% of his makes an attempt, up from 35.3% earlier than this yr. However curiously, he struggled to transform his 2-point makes an attempt. Based on GeniusIQ information, combining common season and playoff stats, Edwards’ accuracy ranks within the twenty seventh percentile or worse within the restricted space, the important thing and the midrange.

The Thunder have already got one of the best inside protection within the league: They allowed the bottom opposing subject purpose share on the rim this season and the fewest factors within the paint. And if Edwards cannot crack that shell, he will not be capable to rating sufficient to threaten them.

Edwards expressed optimism after Recreation 1, regardless of scoring solely 18 factors on 5-for-13 capturing in a sport his staff misplaced by 26. “I definitely got to shoot more,” he stated. “I only took 13 f—ing shots. … Got to go watch some film and pick it apart. We’ll figure it out.”

The Timberwolves have an opportunity to take action; it is no fluke that they’d the NBA’s second-best offense for such an extended stretch. However the Thunder have among the finest defenses in NBA historical past, and no person has found out the way to beat it but.