Lewenberg: Toronto Raptors hoping lottery luck can raise long-term ceiling

TORONTO – To date, the NBA playoffs haven’t dissatisfied.

Stunning upsets, large comebacks, iconic performances, and game-winning performs on each ends of the ground… and for the fourth time in 5 years, the Toronto Raptors can solely watch from house. But when the whole lot goes in response to plan, that’s about to alter.

With their younger core beneath contract and the addition of a (presumably) wholesome Brandon Ingram, it is a group that figures to make a leap subsequent season. At minimal, a spot within the play-in match ought to be inside attain. If the whole lot falls into place, possibly a top-six seed within the Japanese Convention. However the place to from there? Incremental development is the plan within the short-term – they’ve solely simply graduated from the early phases of a rebuild, in spite of everything. However the long-term imaginative and prescient hasn’t modified. They’ve made that clear.

“Our goal is not Play-In, not playoffs, the end goal is to win a championship,” Raptors president Masai Ujiri mentioned just some days after his membership closed the ebook on the 2024-25 marketing campaign. He used the phrase championship 9 instances throughout his 45-minute press convention. 

“That’s why all these teams play, and that’s our goal. So, whatever jump we can make, honestly, we feel like this is our jobs. We need to put the team in this position.”

When was the final time a group received the title with no generational star on the high of its roster? You in all probability have to go all the best way again to the 2004 Detroit Pistons. Having a top-five calibre participant is mainly a prerequisite to compete on that degree. Except Scottie Barnes blossoms right into a bona fide famous person or the Raptors can get their fingers on that sort of participant elsewhere (if the Milwaukee Bucks resolve to make Giannis Antetokounmpo out there this summer time they’ll certainly be within the combine), it’s laborious to see this group’s ceiling reaching that stratosphere. One of the best and most practical solution to discover that man, particularly in a market like Toronto, is within the draft.

With that in thoughts, it’s not hyperbolic to name Could 12 a very powerful day of their season. It’s their most necessary day in three or 4 seasons. This yr’s NBA draft lottery might be franchise altering for every of the 13 groups that may have a shot at touchdown the first-overall choose and choosing Duke phenom Cooper Flagg – the proficient younger ahead who’s broadly thought to be one of many high prospects in latest reminiscence. For the Raptors, a group that doesn’t plan on being again within the lottery anytime quickly, it might increase that long-term ceiling considerably.

At 30-52, Toronto completed the season with the league’s seventh-worst file. That, in and of itself, was a little bit of a disappointment for followers and members of the group alike. They didn’t do the whole lot of their energy to lose video games, opting towards buying centre Jakob Poeltl on the commerce deadline or sitting Barnes down the stretch, nevertheless it’s not like successful was their high precedence. They rested no less than one among their starters in every of the ultimate 20 contests and by no means really thought of debuting Ingram, their prized deadline day acquisition, even when his injured ankle would have allowed for it.

Alas, the NBA’s best end-of-season schedule and a roster that proved too good to fully backside out prevented them from catching the league’s most egregious tankers. They got here out of the season feeling good concerning the tradition they’ve began to determine, the chemistry they’ve constructed and the continued growth of their younger gamers. If all that got here on the expense of some further lottery balls, so be it.

“I was really happy with the way these guys played,” Ujiri mentioned. “Yeah, we tried to attack the odds in the lottery and see what we can do. It’s a good draft. And honestly, wherever we fall, we feel very confident. Our guys have done a lot of work all year. We’re extremely excited.”

When the draw takes place in Chicago on Monday night, the Raptors could have a 7.5 per cent likelihood at incomes the highest choose and a 31.9 per cent shot of shifting into the highest 4. At 34.1 per cent, their more than likely touchdown spot is eighth, factoring within the odds of a group under them shifting up. They’ve a 19.7 per cent likelihood of holding regular at seventh and might’t leap to fifth or sixth, because the league solely attracts for the highest 4.

The group with the seventh greatest pre-lottery place has moved into the highest 4 in 4 of six years because the NBA flattened the percentages, together with Toronto, who went from seven to 4 and chosen Barnes in 2021. The Raptors have received the lottery twice of their 30-year existence – in 1996, when a league rule prohibited enlargement groups from drafting first general and value them future hall-of-famer Allen Iverson (they chose Marcus Camby second), after which in 2006, a draft class with no consensus No. 1 choose (they selected Andrea Bargnani).

This yr, Flagg is a lock to listen to his title referred to as first on June 25, no matter who’s making the choose. The 18-year-old, who ought to have simply graduated from highschool, averaged 19.2 factors, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.4 blocks as a freshman with Duke final season, main the Blue Devils to a Last 4 end. He shot 48 per cent from the sector and 39 per cent from three-point vary. There’s no such factor as a can’t-miss prospect, however he’s as protected because it will get. He’s a flexible participant with a two-way ability set and, by all accounts, his work ethic and drive match the extent of his immense expertise. He’s mature past his years with loads of room for development. The sky is the restrict, as they are saying. He’s this draft’s final prize, which explains the unusually aggressive race to the underside of the standings this previous spring. 

Positionally, he wouldn’t be a pure match subsequent to Barnes and Ingram, and his rookie scale wage (roughly $14 million) would push the Raptors into the luxurious tax, as at the moment constructed, however these are issues they’d be blissful to inherit in the event that they’re lucky sufficient to win the lottery.

In virtually some other class, dynamic combo guard Dylan Harper – son of five-time NBA champion Ron Harper and brother of former Raptors two-way participant Ron Harper Jr. – might make a case for the highest choose. There are some questions on his capturing vary, however the Rutgers product has nice dimension, ability, athleticism, and pedigree. His school teammate, Ace Bailey, a polarizing however excessive upside ahead, and Baylor guard V.J. Edgecombe, who is perhaps the most effective athlete within the draft, are projected to go third and fourth in both order, with a perceived drop off after that.

That’s to not say that there isn’t expertise to be discovered outdoors of the highest 4. Texas guard Tre Johnson and Flagg’s Duke teammates, massive man Khaman Maluach and guard Kon Knueppel, amongst a number of others, supply various ranges of upside and NBA readiness.

The final time there was a extremely regarded massive 4 on the high of the draft, the Raptors went off the board and selected Barnes over Jalen Suggs, a call that has definitely aged properly. They just lately discovered 4 high quality rookies – Ja’Kobe Walter, Jonathan Mogbo, Jamal Shead and Jamison Battle – with out having a top-18 choice in a a lot weaker 2024 draft, so there’s confidence that they will hit on their choose, no matter the place it falls. Nonetheless, somewhat little bit of luck might go a good distance. 

They’ve $173 million dedicated to 11 gamers for subsequent season, leaving them with roughly $10 million to signal their first-round choose and fill no less than two extra roster spots earlier than exceeding the projected tax line. 90 per cent of the payroll ($156.5 million) is owed to their beginning 5 of Barnes, Ingram, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, and Poeltl, so that they’re roughly locked into their core. That is their final likelihood so as to add cheap high-end younger expertise to that group.

There’s so much using on these Ping-Pong balls Monday night time.