Fantasy baseball: Jacob deGrom, Ronald Acuna Jr. and other draft picks to avoid

Final week, I took an in depth take a look at a few of my favourite gamers to draft this spring, so within the curiosity of equal time, let’s concentrate on a number of the gamers I least anticipate to roster on my 2025 fantasy baseball groups.

As all the time, each participant has worth, that means that any participant’s value may drop to the purpose the place he is price rostering. As an example, I do have a single share of the fifth participant on my checklist, from a draft that started in January. For probably the most half, nonetheless, the 9 gamers under price an excessive amount of for my liking.

Earlier than we get began, word that ESPN’s common draft place (ADP) returns to this point reveal a transparent favoritism in direction of rotisserie-minded gamers, which is a typical draft-day gaffe. (Reminder: All the time know your league settings!) This group consists of Elly De La Cruz, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Oneil Cruz, Ezequiel Tovar and Anthony Volpe, all of whom are going not less than 30 picks on common forward of my rating for traditional points-based leagues. I am a believer in all 5 — significantly so for rotisserie-style play — however every is being overvalued in ESPN’s major format.

The next 9 gamers, in the meantime, are those I think about to be universally overpriced and have the largest potential to make you remorse having drafted them the place you probably did.

Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Atlanta Braves: He’d in all probability be a top-5 decide if not for the torn ACL in his left knee that price him the ultimate 112 video games of 2024 and threatens to price him the primary month-plus of this 12 months, so his being discounted to No. 37 general on common in NFBC (Nationwide Fantasy Baseball Championship) drafts (since Saturday) would possibly seem to be a rational funding. Keep in mind, nonetheless, that he did not appear fairly himself for the near-entirety of 2022, when he returned from his first ACL surgical procedure (that one on his proper knee). Now, after reconstructions on each knees, there’s legit query about his future degree of aggression on the bottom paths.

Acuna himself amplified this by telling Alden Gonzalez that he’d “rather steal 30 and play the whole season as opposed to trying to steal 70.” Acuna hasn’t even appeared in a sport but this spring, regardless of constructive stories on his well being, and the Braves will probably use all of his 20-day rehabilitation window as soon as he is prepared, placing him on a possible Might timetable. He is a participant I might choose to focus on by way of a midseason commerce fairly than investing on draft day.

Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros: He’ll flip 34 in Might and is coming off a 2024 the place he posted his worst strikeout, whiff and chase charges in any season of his MLB profession, save for his 2011 rookie marketing campaign and 2020’s pandemic-shortened affair. He’s additionally making a difficult transition to left area after seeing his defensive metrics plummet at second base over latest years. Toss in that the Astros lineup is not as potent with Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker gone, and Altuve is a troublesome promote as a top-40 general decide, which is the place he’s being taken in quite a few ESPN and NFBC leagues to this point.

Willson Contreras, C, St. Louis Cardinals: Usually I really like catcher-eligibles who’re set to get the whole thing of their taking part in time at one other place, however that fantasy baseball mantra – not less than judging by Contreras’ price ticket – seems to have totally reached the mainstream. Sure, his transfer to first base appears prone to scale back his degree of damage and tear, however let’s not overlook that he hasn’t been the healthiest participant, with 9 journeys to the IL in 9 seasons, together with not less than one in every of the final 4 seasons.

Toss in the truth that the Cardinals are headed in a rebuilding path and likewise play in one of many sport’s extra pitcher-friendly ballparks – since 2023, Contreras has a street wOBA 26 factors increased than at Busch Stadium – and his upside merely is not as nice as his ADP suggests. He is a participant you choose for his consistency fairly than for any potential development.

Jacob deGrom, SP, Texas Rangers: He is going No. 48 general in NFBC and No. 96 in ESPN commonplace factors codecs, forward of Yoshinobu Yamamoto within the former and Tanner Bibee within the latter, however there’s completely no likelihood I might draft deGrom inside even three rounds of both spot. I need to consider that deGrom rebounds to his greatest degree of fantasy manufacturing in 4 years, however there are solely so many Chris Sale-caliber, late-career resurgences one can anticipate in a technology.

One damning stat? Amongst pitchers from the enlargement period who like DeGrom, had been not less than age 30 with 1,000 profession IP, but in addition not more than 130 mixed IP within the three seasons straight previous a comeback try, solely Dennis Leonard (1986), Mike Hampton (2009), Carl Pavano (2009) and Sale (2023) threw 100-plus MLB frames of their return season.

And also you learn that proper – it was Sale’s 2023 (fairly than final 12 months’s Cy Younger effort) that certified. All 4 pitchers completed with ERAs not less than three-quarters of a run increased than their profession ERAs on the time. Pavano and Sale then had considerably higher stats the next 12 months, that means … perhaps 2026 is the higher 12 months to spend money on deGrom?

Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Pink Sox: Shoulder points bothered him for many of 2024, significantly a left shoulder harm he suffered throughout a July 23 sport in Colorado. Following a three-day relaxation for these illnesses in late August, he hit a ghastly .164/.262/.178 with 24 strikeouts in 73 at-bats the remainder of the way in which. The truth that Devers entered spring coaching dealing with comparable shoulder soreness, which delayed his Grapefruit League debut till this previous Saturday, solely heightens worries concerning the harm’s affect upon his 2025 numbers.

Argue that his transfer to DH would possibly ease a number of the bodily pressure on him if you want, however that is additionally a big positional adjustment for a veteran hitter. Devers’ NFBC ADP stays a way-too-generous No. 36 general since Saturday, which is down solely 5 spots in comparison with the place it was on the daybreak of spring coaching, regardless of all his harm delays.

Brenton Doyle, OF, Colorado Rockies: Kudos to the enhancements he made throughout his breakthrough 2024, however even with the leap to 23 homer runs and 30 steals, his underlying contact metrics had been nonetheless league-average or worse. Doyle is an distinctive defender with elite pace, however he is a decent-pop, high-whiff bat in a park that the majority inflates contact-hitting, line drive/hole varieties.

Doyle will in all probability all the time be topic to broad dwelling/street splits, greatest evidenced by his being outscored in his street video games by 136 different hitters. Doyle goes almost three rounds earlier in ESPN leagues than the place I’ve him ranked, in addition to forward of higher outfielders like Cody Bellinger and Riley Greene in NFBC codecs. In case you do draft him, it’s best to in all probability begin him at Coors and stream a bat into your lineup for his street video games.

Adolis Garcia, OF, Rangers: A uncommon repeat look on this checklist, Garcia’s extreme regression final season was in all probability a product of his free-swinging tendencies coupled with a knee harm that he performed by way of for a lot of the 12 months. Whereas the latter would possibly seem to have subsided, the indirect difficulty that price him a piece of spring coaching raises extra sturdiness considerations as he enters his age-32 season.

Moreover, his defensive metrics final season give him the look of a future DH — which is a place now aptly crammed by Joc Pederson. Garcia badly wants a rebound if he is to keep away from slipping into part-timer standing, however I am not taking the possibility at what’s at the moment an ADP 33 picks forward of my points-league rating.

Tanner Houck, SP, Pink Sox: He loved a breakthrough fantasy season in 2024 that just about had him ranked among the many prime 30 at his place. Nonetheless, lots of the positive factors that made him look so good early on, he gave again over the season’s waning weeks. After making his first profession All-Star look, he gained only one sport the remainder of the way in which, posting a 4.23 ERA and eight.3% stroll and 15.8% strikeout charges throughout his ultimate 11 begins. Houck hasn’t seemed significantly better throughout spring coaching, posting a 6.30 ERA and solely a ten.6% Ok price by way of three begins, giving himself extra of a back-of-your-staff impression than the burgeoning star he seemed to be in 2024.

Mark Vientos, 3B, New York Mets: He is going virtually six rounds forward of the place I rank him in ESPN leagues. That is an inexplicably giant divide for a participant who did not steal a single base in 2024 (learn: no rotisserie-league bias there). In NFBC leagues, he’s someway going forward of Bregman, Jake Burger and Matt Chapman.

Vientos’ poor plate self-discipline makes him ill-suited for points-league play, to not point out topics him to probably excessive streakiness. He has super energy, with metrics that assist annual 25-HR candidacy, and he deserves credit score for claiming (and seemingly locking down) a 3rd base job that one 12 months in the past appeared to belong to Brett Baty for years to return. But, here is a enjoyable daring prediction for you: Baty goes to finish up as the higher participant when all is claimed and executed – and which may even be true for 2025.