How backchannels and US mediators pulled rivals back from the brink

In a dramatic flip of occasions, US President Donald Trump took to social media on Saturday to announce that India and Pakistan – after 4 tense days of cross-border clashes – had agreed to a “full and immediate ceasefire”.

Behind the scenes, US mediators, alongside diplomatic backchannels and regional gamers, proved vital in pulling the nuclear-armed rivals again from the brink, consultants say.

Nevertheless, hours after a ceasefire deal, India and Pakistan have been buying and selling accusations of contemporary violations – underscoring its fragility.

India accused Pakistan of “repeated violations” whereas Pakistan insisted it remained dedicated to the ceasefire, with its forces exhibiting “responsibility and restraint.”

Earlier than Trump’s ceasefire announcement, India and Pakistan have been spiralling in direction of what many feared might develop into a full-blown battle.

After a lethal militant assault killed 26 vacationers in Indian-administered Kashmir final month, India launched air strikes inside Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir – triggering days of aerial clashes, artillery duels and, by Saturday morning, accusations from either side of missile strikes on one another’s airbases.

The rhetoric escalated sharply, with every nation claiming to have inflicted heavy injury whereas foiling the opposite’s assaults.

Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow on the Brookings Establishment in Washington DC, says US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s name to Pakistani Military Chief Asim Munir on 9 Could “might have been the crucial point”.

“There’s still much we don’t know about the roles of various international actors, but it’s clear over the past three days that at least three countries were working to de-escalate – the US, of course, but also the UK and Saudi Arabia,” she says.

Pakistan’s Overseas Minister Ishaq Dar instructed Pakistani media that “three dozen countries” have been concerned within the diplomacy – together with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the US.

“One question is whether, if this call had come earlier – right after the initial Indian strikes, when Pakistan was already claiming some Indian losses and an off-ramp was available – it might have prevented further escalation,” Ms Madan says.

This is not the primary time US mediation has helped defuse an India–Pakistan disaster.

In his memoir, former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo claimed he was woken as much as communicate with an unnamed “Indian counterpart”, who feared Pakistan was making ready nuclear weapons in the course of the 2019 standoff.

Former Indian Excessive Commissioner to Pakistan Ajay Bisaria later wrote that Pompeo overstated each the danger of nuclear escalation and the US position in calming the battle.

However diplomats say there’s little doubt the US performed an vital position in defusing the disaster this time.

“The US was the most prominent external player. Last time, Pompeo claimed they averted nuclear war. While they’ll likely exaggerate, they may have played the primary diplomatic role, perhaps amplifying Delhi’s positions in Islamabad,” Mr Bisaria instructed the BBC on Saturday.

But on the outset, the US appeared strikingly standoffish.

As tensions flared, US Vice President JD Vance mentioned on Thursday that the US was not going to get entangled in a struggle that is “fundamentally none of our business”.

“We can’t control these countries though. Fundamentally, India has its gripes with Pakistan… America can’t tell the Indians to lay down their arms. We can’t tell the Pakistanis to lay down their arms. And so we’re going to continue to pursue this thing through diplomatic channels, ” he mentioned in a tv interview.

In the meantime, President Trump mentioned earlier this week: “I know both [leaders of India and Pakistan] very well, and I want to see them work it out… I want to see them stop, and hopefully they can stop now”.

Ejaz Haider, a Lahore-based defence analyst, instructed the BBC this gave the impression to be the one distinction from earlier events.

“The American role was a continuation of past patterns, but with one key difference – this time, they initially stayed hands-off, watching the crisis unfold instead of jumping in right away. Only when they saw how it was playing out did they step in to manage it,” Mr Haider instructed the BBC.

Specialists in Pakistan say because the escalation cycle deepened, Pakistan despatched “dual signals”, retaliating militarily whereas saying a Nationwide Command Authority (NCA) assembly – a transparent reminder of the nuclear overhang.

The NCA controls and takes operational choices relating to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.

This was across the time US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stepped in.

“The US was indispensable. This outcome would not have occurred without Secretary Rubio’s efforts,” Ashley J Tellis, a senior fellow on the Carnegie Endowment for Worldwide Peace, instructed the BBC.

What additionally helped was Washington’s deepening ties with Delhi.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s private rapport with Trump, plus the US’s broader strategic and financial stakes, gave the US administration diplomatic leverage to push each nuclear-armed rivals in direction of de-escalation.

Indian diplomats see three key peace tracks that occurred this time, very similar to after Pulwama–Balakot in 2019:

• US and UK strain
• Saudi mediation, with the Saudi junior overseas minister visiting each capitals
• The direct India-Pakistan channel between the 2 nationwide safety advisors (NSAs)

Regardless of shifting international priorities and a hands-off posture at first, the US in the end stepped in because the indispensable mediator between South Asia’s nuclear rivals.

Whether or not overstated by its personal officers or underacknowledged by Delhi and Islamabad, consultants consider the US’s position as disaster supervisor stays as important – and as sophisticated – as ever.

Doubts do, nonetheless, linger over the ceasefire’s sturdiness after Saturday’s occasions, with some Indian media reporting it was basically brokered by senior navy officers of the 2 nations – not the US.

“This ceasefire is bound to be a fragile one. It came about very quickly, amid sky-high tensions. India appears to have interpreted it differently than did the US and Pakistan,” Michael Kugelman, a overseas coverage analyst, instructed the BBC.

“Also, since it was put together so hastily, the accord may lack the proper guarantees and assurances one would need at such a tense moment.”