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Series Preview: Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays

“Series Preview: Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays”


On condition that two of the Mariners losses in San Francisco a couple of weeks in the past have been walk-offs and that they’ve gone 7-2 within the time since that time, it’s attainable that sequence is the outlier in what’s principally been a stable begin to the season. This roster isn’t constructed to win a bunch of blowouts. Shut video games are by design and 15 of their 19 video games up to now have been determined by three or fewer runs. With the margins so skinny, we’re certain to see some wild swings between cold and hot. The sequence in Cincinnati uncovered how desperately Seattle wants some bullpen reinforcements — Matt Brash might be per week away from being activated however I feel they’ll want greater than that.

At a Look

Mariners Blue Jays
Mariners Blue Jays
Sport 1 Friday, April 18 | 4:07 pm
RHP Bryan Woo RHP Bowden Francis
49% 51%
Sport 2 Saturday, April 19 | 12:07 pm
RHP Logan Gilbert RHP José Berríos
51% 49%
Sport 3 Sunday, April 20 | 10:37 am
RHP Luis Castillo LHP Easton Lucas
51% 49%

*Sport odds courtesy of FanGraphs

Group Overview

Overview Blue Jays Mariners Edge
Overview Blue Jays Mariners Edge
Batting (wRC+) 101 (seventh in AL) 104 (sixth in AL) Mariners
Fielding (OAA) 24 (third) -17 (eleventh) Blue Jays
Beginning Pitching (FIP-) 102 (tenth) 92 (third) Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-) 119 (fifteenth) 99 (eighth) Blue Jays

2024 stats

The Blue Jays entered the season in a very awkward place. They missed out on signing Shohei Ohtani final 12 months after which missed out on Juan Soto and Roki Sasaki this offseason regardless of aggressive pursuit of all three superstars. To make issues extra sophisticated, each Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette have been coming into their last years of staff management in 2025, giving Toronto some urgency to both signal them to extensions or determine a method to construct one final contending roster earlier than they left in free company. The Jays managed to string the needle on each factors; Vladito signed a large $500 million extension per week into the common season and the roster was bolstered by bringing in guys like Anthony Santander, Max Scherzer, Andrés Giménez, and Jeff Hoffman. They’re in a a lot better place now have been one of many higher groups within the AL to begin the season.

Blue Jays Lineup

Participant Place Bats PA Okay% BB% ISO wRC+
Participant Place Bats PA Okay% BB% ISO wRC+
Bo Bichette SS R 336 19.0% 6.0% 0.096 71
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B R 697 13.8% 10.3% 0.221 165
Anthony Santander DH S 665 19.4% 8.7% 0.271 129
Andrés Giménez 2B L 633 15.3% 4.1% 0.087 83
George Springer RF R 614 18.7% 9.8% 0.150 95
Will Wagner 3B L 86 18.6% 4.7% 0.146 125
Alejandro Kirk C R 386 13.2% 9.1% 0.106 94
Myles Straw CF R 495 19.2% 10.7% 0.090 72
Alan Roden LF L 530 14.2% 12.1% 0.182 136

2024 stats; Straw and Roden’s stats from minor leagues

You may quibble concerning the dimension of the extension Vladito signed — I wouldn’t be snug paying that a lot to a bat-only first baseman — however the actuality is that he was primarily Toronto’s only option to safe a famous person the foreseeable future after they whiffed on Ohtani, Soto, and Sasaki. And to be clear, Guerrero’s bat might be ok to anchor the lineup for half a decade or so earlier than he begins to say no. Bichette had a horrible season final 12 months because of a sequence of accidents nevertheless it seems like he’s bounced again properly. The brand new additions to the lineup — Santander and Giménez — have been stable bits of enterprise; the previous supplies one other huge bat to complement George Springer’s ageing manufacturing whereas the latter upgrades their infield protection considerably whereas nonetheless having some offensive upside.

Possible Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

Baltimore Orioles v Toronto Blue Jays

Photograph by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Photographs

Sport 1 Pitching Matchup

Pitcher IP Okay% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP
Pitcher IP Okay% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP
Bowden Francis 103 2/3 22.5% 5.4% 12.8% 34.3% 3.30 4.36
Bryan Woo 121 1/3 21.4% 2.8% 9.4% 40.6% 2.89 3.40

2024 stats

RHP Bowden Francis

Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA
Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA
4-seam 51.3% 92.9 98 84 100 0.301
Sinker 3.0% 90.3 77
Splitter 18.3% 83.8 102 62 94 0.201
Curveball 18.2% 73.5 107 77 90 0.324
Slider 9.3% 81.7 90 133 107 0.307

2024 stats

It took some time for Bowden Francis to search out his breakthrough second, nevertheless it lastly occurred over the ultimate two months of the season final 12 months. From August on, he was almost unhittable, producing a 1.53 ERA whereas placing out 56 in 59 innings. He was by no means a extremely regarded prospect and had solely had expertise as a protracted reliever within the huge leagues as much as that time. The important thing to unlocking that two-month sizzling streak was a brand new splitter that he picked up from his teammates in the course of the offseason. As you’d anticipate, he significantly outperformed his peripherals throughout these 9 begins, however the contact administration the cut up supplied him and the command of his repertoire give him a greater outlook than he had when he began the season.


Sport 2 Pitching Matchup

Pitcher IP Okay% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP
Pitcher IP Okay% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP
José Berríos 192 1/3 19.5% 6.9% 15.0% 43.2% 3.60 4.72
Logan Gilbert 208 2/3 27.4% 4.6% 12.9% 45.1% 3.23 3.27

2024 stats

RHP José Berríos

Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA
Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA
4-seam 18.6% 94.1 89 90 91 0.385
Sinker 33.4% 93.4 94 85 102 0.359
Cutter 3.5% 91.4 87 52 85 0.418
Changeup 16.0% 84.8 87 88 103 0.296
Slurve 28.6% 83.2 100 99 104 0.292

2024 stats

José Berríos has settled in as a mid-rotation innings eater in his age-31 season, and since he debuted so younger, that is additionally his tenth main league season. He’s made 32 begins in all six of the final full seasons offering metronomic manufacturing that’s so uncommon within the trendy period. He hasn’t risen to the total ceiling that his early profession success portended and that’s principally attributable to a repertoire that hasn’t actually advanced as the sport has. His four-seamer and sinker are each fairly mediocre so far as pitch traits go and his curveball/slurve seems actually good within the spotlight reels nevertheless it’s really fairly straightforward for batters to select up. He’s actually shifted his pitch combine over the previous few seasons to emphasise his sinker over his four-seamer which helps him handle the loud contact he permits however limits his means to generate huge strikeout totals.


Sport 3 Pitching Matchup

Pitcher IP Okay% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP
Pitcher IP Okay% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP
Easton Lucas 68 2/3 26.2% 10.0% 5.6% 37.9% 2.75 3.61
Luis Castillo 175 1/3 24.3% 6.5% 12.3% 39.3% 3.64 3.91

2024 stats; Lucas’s stats from minor leagues

Easton Lucas has bounced round between 5 totally different organizations since being drafted in 2019 and was thrust right into a beginning position for the Blue Jays after Max Scherzer went down with a thumb damage in his first begin of the 12 months. Lucas responded by pitching two straight shutouts in his first two begins of the season earlier than getting blown up for eight runs in his final begin towards the Braves. He throws a driving four-seamer up within the zone to earn whiffs whereas peppering the surface nook with each a standard gyro slider and an even bigger sweeper. He’s additionally acquired a changeup to maintain right-handed batters at bay, nevertheless it’s his worst pitch per Stuff+ and it hasn’t actually fooled anybody up to now.


The Massive Image:

AL West Standings

Group W-L W% Video games Behind Current Kind
Group W-L W% Video games Behind Current Kind
Rangers 12-7 0.632 L-L-W-W-W
Mariners 10-9 0.526 2.0 W-W-L-W-W
Angels 9-9 0.500 2.5 W-L-L-L-L
Athletics 9-10 0.474 3.0 W-L-W-W-W
Astros 8-10 0.444 3.5 L-W-L-W-L

Say it with me: lastros, Lastros, LASTROS!

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