Best NBA player props, odds for Wednesday, April 16: Use Bam Adebayo, Domantas Sabonis for NBA Play-In picks

The Wednesday NBA schedule options win-or-go-home contests within the 2025 NBA Play-In Match, the place two groups’ seasons will come to an finish. Bulls vs. Warmth (+1.5) at 7:30 p.m. ET is adopted by Mavericks vs. Kings (-4.5) at 10 p.m. ET. Stars like Andrew Wiggins, Nikola Vucevic, Anthony Davis and Zach LaVine might be focal factors of their groups and of NBA participant props. Davis recording a double-double is -300 for “Yes” and +210 for “No” at BetMGM Sportsbook within the newest NBA props. Davis, nevertheless, has extra video games and not using a double-double (5) than with (4) since becoming a member of Dallas, so is the plus-money prop guess one to leap on? Additionally, what different NBA prop bets have discernible developments which make one aspect of them simple selections to again?

The SportsLine Projection Mannequin simulates each NBA sport 10,000 instances and has returned nicely over $10,000 for $100 gamers on its top-rated NBA picks over the previous six-plus seasons. One of many Information Scientists behind the mannequin, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim outcomes and broke down the supporting proof to disclose which participant props have the most effective worth for at the moment’s slate. The NBA odds may change, so act now for max worth.

Bam Adebayo Over 19.5 factors (-145) 

Adebayo has upped his manufacturing since Jimmy Butler was traded away, going from 16.4 factors per sport with Butler on the group to twenty.8 factors since he left. Although this play-in sport is not technically a playoff contest, it’s nonetheless the postseason nonetheless, and Adebayo tends to be extra aggressive in a majority of these video games. He is scored 20-plus factors in every of his final 10 playoff video games — and that was alongside Butler for a lot of of them — so his developments point out he ought to eclipse this bar on Wednesday.

“He comes in on a nice 5-1 over stretch (24.5 avg) with the 1 under being the 18 pt game vs Chicago last week,” Oh mentioned of Adebayo. “He has averaged 20.5 pts (4-2 over) his last 6 vs the Bulls as he’s had a lot of success in matchups vs Nikola Vucevic (23, 23, 24, 23, and 27 pts before that 18 pt game).” There’s nice worth with this NBA prop at DraftKings.

Domantas Sabonis Over 6.5 assists (-115)

The mannequin has a projection of seven.1 assists for Sabonis, who has averaged 7.9 assists over his final seven video games versus Dallas. Six of these seven noticed him go Over 6.5 dimes, together with every of the final three. The Mavericks have allowed the Eleventh-most assists this season, however once you take a look at how they’ve accomplished towards facilities, particularly, you possibly can see why the mannequin backs the Over. Simply six NBA groups allowed extra assists per sport to opposing facilities than Dallas. That features permitting eight assists in its final sport through which it performed its starters — and that was to Toronto’s Jonathan Mogbo, who got here in averaging simply 2.1 assists. With Sabonis averaging 6.0 assists the season, the worth is clearly on the Over at DraftKings.

Miami Warmth to beat the Chicago Bulls (+105)

These groups are enjoying almost one 12 months to the day of their play-in match matchup a 12 months in the past. Like tonight, that one was a win-or-go-home state of affairs, and Miami dominated to the tune of a 21-point victory. Each groups enter this matchup on an upswing, with Chicago 6-3 over its final 9 video games, however Miami is 8-3 over its final 11, earlier than sitting its starters within the common season finale. Whereas Wednesday’s matchup will happen in Chicago, that does not essentially give the house group the benefit because the Bulls went simply 18-23 at dwelling. That is the worst dwelling mark amongst the 20 groups to qualify for the playoffs or play-in, as simply six groups in the complete NBA had a worst dwelling file than the Bulls.

“The model is making the road team a nearly -4 favorite with a 60% chance of winning,” mentioned Oh, with the most effective odds for Miami to outright win coming at Caesars.

Need extra NBA picks for tonight?

You have seen the mannequin’s NBA prop picks for the most well-liked props on Wednesday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

You may also view knowledgeable betting recommendation earlier than making Wednesday NBA picks or participant props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks from an expert who is 90-64-1 (+1945) over his last 155 NBA picks.

SportsLine additionally has a number of specialists who specialise in participant props, together with Mike Barner, who’s 137-89 (+3254) over his final 226 participant props. Visit SportsLine now to see who Barner is including in his NBA player prop picks for Wednesday, which includes a play on one of the league’s top rookies.