Expert picks, best bets: Where’s the value at UFC Fight Night?

Males’s bantamweight contender Cory Sandhagen seems to be to bounce again from his first loss since 2023 when he takes on former males’s flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo in the primary occasion at UFC Battle Night time in Des Moines, Iowa, on Saturday night time (10 ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, with prelims at 7 on ESPN2/ESPN+).

Sandhagen, ESPN’s No. 5-ranked bantamweight, enters the struggle following a unanimous choice loss to Umar Nurmagomedov at a UFC Battle Night time final August. Earlier than dropping that struggle, he was using a three-fight win streak that included victories over Music Yadong and Marlon “Chito” Vera. Figueiredo, ranked No. 6, can be coming off a loss. Petr Yan beat him by unanimous choice at a UFC Battle Night time final November.

Brett Okamoto spoke to former UFC males’s bantamweight champion TJ Dillashaw to get his perspective on the primary occasion. ESPN betting professional Ian Parker provides perception and evaluation on that struggle and different intriguing bets he likes on the cardboard.

Editor’s word: Responses have been edited for brevity and readability.

Males’s bantamweight: Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

TJ Dillashaw, former UFC males’s bantamweight champion

How Sandhagen wins: I like Sandhagen, not solely as an athlete however as a human. I needed to struggle him as soon as, however we skilled collectively years earlier than that. He must hold this struggle standing, utilizing his creativity and angles. His massive knees up the center can be large, given how a lot shorter Figureiredo is. He cannot stand in entrance of Figueiredo and permit him to shoot takedowns. Sandhagen has a attain benefit, so do not overcommit and hit these pop pictures, flashy feints, simply hold all of it unpredictable. Sandhagen’s hanging is so slick. He does an incredible job of switching stances and conserving his again off the cage.

How Figueiredo wins: Safely shut the gap and avoid Sandhagen’s knees. Figueiredo has to arrange his punches; he cannot simply shoot takedowns. He must put his arms on Cory first and make him imagine in his energy, as a result of Figueiredo has energy, even shifting up in weight. Get Sandhagen to respect his energy after which take him down. He must get the struggle to the bottom, for a number of causes. I do not assume he can sustain with Sandhagen’s tempo on the toes. However as soon as Figueredo will get him down, his jiu-jitsu is second to none. He has nice management and submissions, and that is a weak spot that Cory has proven in earlier fights.

X issue: For Sandhagen, it is his cardio and struggle IQ. He works with Trevor Wittman now, and I am positive they’ve give you an incredible sport plan. For Figueiredo, it is his jiu-jitsu. Cody Garbrandt may be very laborious to take down and hold down — he is like a cat, he will get again up so rapidly — and Figueiredo managed to take him down and submit him.

Prediction: I lean Sandhagen right here due to the cardio and the mindset. He’s unbeatable when he is on high of his sport, and I believe he believes in himself proper now.

Parker’s betting evaluation

Odds correct as of Could 1. For probably the most up-to-date odds, go to ESPN BET.

Sandhagen to win (-550); over 2.5 rounds. It appears like whoever loses this struggle has seen their final alternative to chase a UFC championship. Sandhagen is sitting as a close to 5-to-1 favourite, and it is smart. Exterior of a fluke KO strike from Figueiredo, Sandhagen is best in every single place and is aware of easy methods to keep out of hassle. Search for Sandhagen to make the most of his quantity hanging and dictate the tempo to get the win. If he’s to complete Figueredo, I say it will are available in Rounds 4 or 5. Nevertheless, to get the road down, let’s take Sandhagen to win and over 2.5 rounds, making these bets the anchors of our parlay.

Finest bets on the remainder of the UFC card

Middleweight: Bo Nickal vs. Reinier de Ridder

Nickal to win (-340). Nickal requested for a step up in competitors, and he is getting simply that. De Ridder is coming off back-to-back submission wins over Gerald Meerschaert and Kevin Holland, however I believe the submission and win streaks come to an finish right here. Pretty much as good as de Ridder has been in his two UFC fights and in his years with One Championship, the place he was a two-division champ, there’s a motive why Nickal is being handled as “that guy.” Nickal could not have the technical hanging of de Ridder, however he is technical sufficient to maintain his opponent sincere and he most likely has the sting in pace and energy. On high of that, Nickal’s world-class wrestling — he was a three-time NCAA Division I nationwide champion — can be too sturdy for de Ridder, and Nickal is defensively sound within the jiu-jitsu division, so I do not see him getting submitted. This appears like a Nickal choice victory, however to play it secure, let’s take him to win on the moneyline and add him to our parlay.

Welterweight: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Daniel Rodriguez

Ponzinibbio to win (-115). This ought to be a enjoyable standup battle, with two UFC veterans placing on a present for the followers. I’m shocked on the betting line, as I assumed Ponzinibbio can be an even bigger favourite, however at close to coin-flip odds, I like this spot. Ponzinibbio is best in every single place the struggle can go, and with Rodriguez having misplaced three of his previous 4 and looking out a bit sluggish in his final struggle, I believe Ponzinibbio provides one other KO/TKO to his resume.