Senators cap court docket: Evaluating contract projections on pending free brokers

We’re nonetheless within the early days of the Ottawa Senators’ offseason, and GM Steve Staios has a handful on his plate. And that’s earlier than subsequent month’s draft and earlier than the NHL free company interval begins on July 1.

In keeping with PuckPedia, the Senators have $16,626,786 in cap area. They started their offseason with barely over $18 million accessible, however that’s modified with the current signings of Nikolas Matinpalo and prospect Lucas Ellinas. It nonetheless offers them room to chase a free agent or two of worth, however that can rely upon how they deal with contracts for Claude Giroux, Fabian Zetterlund and Tyler Kleven, amongst different pending free brokers.

With the assistance of AFP Analytics’ contract projections and Sean McIndoe, aka Down Goes Brown, who you recognize from his Cap Court docket judgments, let’s study projected numbers for 5 notable Sens gamers and consider if these are sound offers for the staff to signal.

Order within the (cap) court docket! (I do know this line is tacky. It’s the offseason. Who cares.)

Claude Giroux

2024-25 stats: 15 targets, 50 factors, 81 video games performed

Earlier contract: three years, $6,500,000 common annual worth

AFP Analytics projection: two years, $5,172,280 AAV

Comparables (AFP Analytics): Joe Pavelski (one yr, $5.5 million in 2022-23; one yr, $3.5 million in 2023-24), Justin Williams (two years, $4.5 million), Mikael Backlund (two years, $4.5 million), Nick Foligno (two years, $4.5 million)

McKenzie: In the event you’re the Senators, do you give Giroux a two-year deal at that value? he can nonetheless play at a excessive degree. However you additionally know his numbers have been trending downward. Anticipating a 37-year-old’s numbers to rebound isn’t inconceivable, but it surely’s not going. Pavelski’s career-best 81-point season at 37 ought to be thought-about an exception to the rule.

I nonetheless assume the Senators will profit by having Giroux round. If he’s nonetheless a 50-point participant, he’s of use on a staff that wants purpose scoring and level manufacturing the place they will get it — however not at that projected price ticket. I urged a one-year, $4.25 million deal earlier this month. It offers Giroux an AAV larger than one other comparable, David Perron (two years, $4 million AAV), whereas having him at a aggressive price relative to his friends.

McIndoe: Going a number of years at greater than $5 million on a 35-plus participant with declining numbers? That’s not the kind of deal I’d wish to see my staff decide to. However my staff isn’t the Senators, and I believe there’s a case to be made that Ottawa ought to be prepared to go a bit larger for one of many uncommon “local kid comes home” tales they’ve had. After he dedicated to the rebuild three years in the past, it could be a disgrace to see Giroux depart simply because it’s beginning to repay. Signal him. And if issues go south, you’ve nonetheless obtained a revered veteran who’d most likely internet a draft decide from a contender down the road.

Fabian Zetterlund got here to Ottawa on the commerce deadline from the San Jose Sharks. (Marc DesRosiers / Imagn Pictures)

Fabian Zetterlund

2024-25 stats: two targets, three assists, 5 factors in 20 video games performed with Ottawa (17 targets, 36 factors, 64 GP with San Jose)

Earlier contract: two years, $1,450,000 AAV

AFP Analytics projection: three years, $3,915,500 AAV

Comparables: Tyler Bertuzzi (one yr, $3.5 million), Sven Baertschi (one yr, $3,666,666), Conor Sheary (three years, $3 million), Kasperi Kapanen (two years, $3.2 million)

McKenzie: Zetterlund appeared destined for a restricted free agent contract in California earlier than the commerce deadline, displaying a ample quantity of promise as he made his approach towards one other 20-goal season. The Sharks even wished to debate a contract earlier than Zetterlund’s camp countered with phrases of their very own earlier than opting to attend till the offseason. Then the Sharks moved Zetterlund to Ottawa. He spent his time bouncing round from line to line whereas nonetheless getting slot possibilities and being bodily.

Zetterlund is arbitration-eligible, and I’m inclined to assume Zetterlund would really like the projected deal because it brings some time period and a elevate. I can see the Sens residing with this time period, offered the cap hit is cheaper. A 3-year, $3.25 million AAV deal can be significantly better.

McIndoe: Zetterlund isn’t fairly adequate to push this into Shiny New Toy territory, however the hazard issue continues to be evident, even after he appeared first rate in restricted motion after arriving from San Jose. Shave a yr off the time period and I’d be extra snug with the chance right here.

Nick Cousins

2024-25 stats: six targets, 15 factors, 50 video games performed

Earlier contract: one yr, $800k AAV

AFP Analytics projection: one yr, $1,091,005.17 AAV

Comparables: Justin Danforth (one yr, $1.1 million), Mattias Janmark (one yr, $1 million), Sam Carrick (3 years, $1 million in 2024; 2 years, $850k in 2022), Carter Rowney (one yr, $825k)

McKenzie: Cousins was derailed by a knee harm partway by the yr however returned in time for the playoffs. He’s a veteran with playoff expertise who is sensible as a depth add on most groups. However relying on what roles the Sens might have in retailer for Perron and even Giroux, Cousins could possibly be expendable. The contract isn’t dangerous, however I can see the Sens saying thanks, however no thanks.

McIndoe: Cousins is a former Florida Panther and his taking part in type definitely matches their dirtbag methods, so you would think about a GM deciding to overpay a bit in the course of the season in hopes it pays off within the playoffs. You’ll be able to solely have a couple of of these guys, although, so the query is whether or not Cousins is best than the opposite choices on the market. I’m undecided he’s.

Adam Gaudette

2024-25 stats: 19 targets, 26 factors, 81 video games performed

Earlier contract: one yr, $775k AAV

AFP Analytics projection: one yr, $1,025,431.25 AAV

Comparables: Victor Olofsson (one yr, $1,075,000), Nick Bjugstad (one yr, $900k), Michael Carcone (two years, $775k), Danton Heinen (one yr, $775k)

McKenzie: Gaudette lastly obtained to indicate he could possibly be an on a regular basis NHL participant with the Senators this previous yr. He scored targets earlier within the yr earlier than settling right into a bottom-six plus penalty-kill position for the remainder of the yr. Gaudette even requested for the PK time.

I like this deal if I’m the Sens. However I don’t know if Gaudette likes it, maybe feeling his goal-scoring means and want to kill penalties might internet him extra, at the least by way of time period. However the Sens wouldn’t be damage a lot by protecting Gaudette as their fourth centre at that value. If Gaudette doesn’t pan out, and somebody like Stephen Halliday emerges from the minors, you possibly can put Gaudette on waivers.

McIndoe: I’m not on this kind of deal … if I’m Gaudette’s agent. From a staff perspective, I’d be blissful to have a 20-goal upside risk at a comparatively rock-bottom cap hit. I’m undecided what a cope with time period would appear to be given the restricted pattern dimension, however I’ve seen sufficient to roll the cube on an inexpensive, short-term dedication.

Tyler Kleven is a younger defenceman who turned a mainstay on the third pairing. (Marc DesRosiers / Imagn Pictures)

Tyler Kleven

2024-25 stats: 4 targets, 10 factors, 79 video games performed

Earlier contract: three years, $916,667 AAV

AFP Analytics projection: two years, $1,085,761.56 AAV

Comparables: Madison Bowey (two years, $1 million), Brian Dumoulin (two years, $800k), Libor Hajek (one yr, $874,125), Scott Mayfield (two years, $625k), Colton White (one yr, $700k)

McKenzie: Taking a look at a few of these comparisons, Kleven isn’t a journeyman defenceman hoping to strike it wealthy. He proved himself as an on a regular basis NHL defenceman and even impressed in the course of the playoffs. Is his ceiling that of a top-four defenceman? I have to see extra earlier than I stake such a declare.

If the Sens have seen sufficient to assume it’s value signing Kleven to a long-term, cost-effective deal, I don’t assume it’s horrible enterprise, offered the AAV isn’t too excessive. However it wouldn’t shock me if the Sens held off and saved him on a shorter-term deal and let him proceed to mature as a participant. If that is the deal projected for him to signal, you go forward and revel in Kleven as your No. 5 defenceman for the subsequent two seasons earlier than reassessing.

McIndoe: That is one other one the place some time period may make extra sense. But when the staff isn’t snug going there but, this can be a more-than-fair value for a 23-year-old who can deal with third-pair minutes.

(High picture of Adam Gaudette and Claude Giroux: Steph Chambers / Getty Pictures)