One More Big Weekend to Go

We’re on the cusp of the one-month mark to the GI Kentucky Derby and this Saturday marks crucial weekend of nine-furlong preps on the Triple Crown calendar, with vital stakes at Santa Anita, Keeneland, and Aqueduct. Subsequent week the High 12 expands to the High 20 because the precise area begins to take form.

1) CITIZEN BULL (c, Into Mischief-No Joke, by Distorted Humor) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Decided Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Tom J. Ryan, Waves Edge Capital LLC and Catherine Donovan; B-Robert Low & Lawana Low (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Gross sales historical past: $675,000 Ylg ’23 KEESEP. Lifetime Report: Ch. 2yo, MGISW, 5-4-0-1, $1,421,000. Final begin: WON Feb. 1 GIII Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

Citizen Bull, the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and 2-year-old champion colt, will take a 4-for-5 report into Saturday’s GI Santa Anita Derby. He is wired the sector in three consecutive graded two-turn stakes and can break from submit two in a area of 5.

This $675,000 KEESEP son of Into Mischief will likely be beginning Saturday off a nine-week layoff. In keeping with DRF‘s Formulator, over the previous 5 years, coach Bob Baffert has received at a 27-for-81 clip (33%) with starters in any respect ranges coming back from layoffs of 60-70 days. While you slender the parameter to solely embrace Grade I stakes for a similar layoff vary, Baffert’s win ratio stays constant at 6-for-19 (32%)

However Baffert’s layoff strategy to the Santa Anita Derby has all the time been totally different. He is had no less than one starter in most Santa Anita Derbies since he first received that stakes with Cavonnier in 1996. But on solely six events over the previous three many years has Baffert despatched out a Santa Anita Derby starter who did not have his most up-to-date race in March.

None of these half-dozen horses who made their final begins in February (or earlier) had been thought-about Baffert’s A-list contenders in these years. None of them had been favored, and none of them received.

So what does that imply for Citizen Bull? Effectively, the colt already received this 12 months coming off a 13-week layoff again on Feb. 1, so it may not matter a lot for him as a person.

However Baffert taking the nine-weeks-off strategy with the highest-ranked horse in his secure is a departure from the shorter-spaced schedules of his 9 earlier Santa Anita Derby winners, all of whom final raced between Mar. 1 and 20.

2) JOURNALISM (c, Curlin-Mopotism, by Uncle Mo) O-Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Steady, Eclipse Thoroughbred Companions, Elayne Stables 5 LLC, LaPenta, Robert V., Mrs, John Magnier, Derrick Smith & Michael Tabor; B-Don Alberto Company (KY); T-Michael W. McCarthy. Gross sales historical past: $825,000 Ylg ’23 FTSAUG. Lifetime Report: MGSW, 4-3-0-1, $338,880. Final begin: WON Mar. 1 GII San Felipe Stakes.

This $825,000 FTSAUG colt by Curlin is an athletic stalker who will try to capitalize on no matter tempo materializes in Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby.

However how totally cranked ought to we anticipate Journalism to be 4 weeks out from the Kentucky Derby, particularly contemplating that this Michael McCarthy trainee has already locked up sufficient factors to qualify and is coming off a best-in-division 108 Beyer Velocity Determine in his earlier win, the GII San Felipe Stakes?

The emphatic, commanding nature of Journalism’s San Felipe rating considerably obscures the truth that that is nonetheless a colt with solely 4 lifetime races who’s unproven past 1 1/16 miles. And in three of these 4 profession begins, Journalism confronted solely 4 different starters, so the majority of his expertise has been in opposition to quick fields.

Though Journalism was a contact tardy in altering leads in his first two maiden races, he has since found out what it takes to be efficient in deep stretch. From the eighth pole residence, he has all the time improved his place, and has both gained lengths on the chief (in his one defeat) or prolonged his successful margin (in three straight victories round two turns).

Journalism will get excessive marks for willingly responding to in-race cues to quicken with metronomic precision, and his far-turn torque and the way in which he targets and confronts horses forward of him stands out in opposition to his friends.

3) TAPPAN STREET (c, Into Mischief-Virginia Key, by Distorted Humor) O-WinStar Farm LLC, CHC, Inc. and Chilly Press Racing; B-Blue Heaven Farm (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Gross sales historical past: $1,000,000 yrl ’23 FTNAUG. Lifetime report: GISW, 3-2-1-0, $643,400. Final race: WON Mar. 29 GI Florida Derby.

Though he’ll probably go into the Derby because the lightest-raced prime contender with solely three lifetime races, Tappan Road’s 94-Beyer GI Florida Derby tally over 9 furlongs stamps him as a succesful stalker who has sufficient tactical pace to safe advantageous positioning in a 20-horse area.

He nonetheless wants to search out about 10 Beyer factors over the following 4 1/2 weeks as a way to be thought-about a real win candidate, however as a $1-million FTSAUG colt by Into Mischief, enchancment on that order of magnitude shouldn’t be unrealistic contemplating the way in which this colt makes his personal breaks and the way a lot confidence jockey Luis Saez reveals when driving him.

Wager right down to the two.4-1 second alternative, this Brad Cox trainee broke alertly from submit 9, backed off the tempo whereas 4 deep via the primary flip, then settled 3 1/2 lengths off the pacemakers down the bottom.

Unwinding at will, Tappan Road snatched third beneath hand-urging five-sixteenths out, then progressively constructed momentum off the flip whereas focusing on a dueling duo that supplied little resistance when Tappan Road got here excessive on the eighth pole.

With the on-rushing 1.7-1 favourite Sovereignty (Into Mischief) looming as the ultimate hazard, Tappan Road transitioned into the next gear to carry that rival at bay with out showing totally prolonged.

“He was traveling professionally,” Saez mentioned. “I saw [Sovereignty] and I let my horse go a little bit more, and he gave me a good turn of foot. When he came to the top of the stretch, I knew it was going to be tough to catch [us].”

4) CAPTAIN COOK (c, Practical Joke-Pow Wow Wow, by Indian Charlie) ‘TDN Rising Star’. O-St. Elias Steady; B-Marylou Whitney Stables, LLC (KY); T-Richard E. Dutrow, Jr. Gross sales historical past: $410,000 2yo ’24 KEENOV. Lifetime Report: SW, 3-2-0-0, $188,256. Final begin: WON Feb. 1 Withers Stakes.

Very like within the write-up for Citizen Bull, Captain Prepare dinner will likely be making an attempt this weekend’s GII Wooden Memorial Stakes off a nine-week break and a win in his final race, the Feb. 1 Withers Stakes. He drew submit two in a 12-horse area that has no scarcity of early pace on paper.

Since 2023, Rick Dutrow Jr. has compiled a 5-for-20 report with layoff returnees within the vary of 60 to 70 days. Throughout that point, he has solely tried a layoff of that size twice in graded stakes, with no wins.

Captain Prepare dinner has already received off a nine-week respite as soon as in his three lifetime begins, with that victory coming in his first begin for Dutrow Dec. 28 after being bought for $410,000 on the Keeneland November Horses of Racing Age Sale.

This ‘TDN Rising Star’ by Practical Joke adopted up that 9 1/4-length maiden blowout over a sloppy seven furlongs at Aqueduct with a no-nonsense, 94-Beyer two-turn debut over 9 furlongs within the Withers.

Captain Prepare dinner is at the moment ranked thirty second on the Derby factors leaderboard with 20 factors.

5) SOVEREIGNTY (c, Into Mischief-Topped, by Bernardini) O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-William I. Mott. Lifetime Report: MGSW, 5-2-2-0, $572,800. Final begin: 2nd Mar. 29 GI Florida Derby.

Going into the Florida Derby, the vibe round Sovereignty was that he did not should win to nonetheless be thought-about a significant participant for the Kentucky Derby. As a deep nearer who had drawn the outermost submit, it did not appear crucial to push him for an over-the-top effort with the principle purpose 5 weeks down the street in Louisville.

This Into Mischief-sired homebred for Godolphin reliably closed from off the tailgate with a four-wide stretch bid to get second behind the quickly enhancing Tappan Road. He was 2 3/4 lengths away from the pacemakers who had dueled themselves into defeat, and there have been no different closers making vital late strikes.

Sovereignty’s Beyer determine took a haircut from 95 to 92. He had received his earlier two begins, the Mar. 1 GII Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Oct. 27 GIII Street Sense Stakes.

“He came with his run. He ran well,” coach Invoice Mott mentioned. “He bought slightly large going into the primary flip, however he bought in and bought a reasonably good journey. [Jockey Manny Franco] mentioned the bottom sort of broke away from him two totally different occasions, as soon as on the three-eighths pole and as soon as on the five-sixteenths pole. He mentioned he sort of misplaced it and gathered himself up, after which he did it once more…

“This doesn’t have to be his best race. Sometimes you can look at it and say maybe that’s a good thing. You don’t want their best race before the big event,” Mott continued. “This is a very important race, but I think the fact that he ran very big last time and ran very well this time, maybe he’ll continue to improve. I don’t think the fact that he didn’t win doesn’t mean he didn’t run a good race.”

6) BARNES (c, Into Mischief-All American Dream, by American Pharoah) ‘TDN Rising Star’ O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Jeff Drown and Don Rachel, LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Gross sales historical past: $3,200,000 Ylg ’23 FTSAUG. Lifetime report: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $249,000. Final begin: 2nd Mar. 1 GII San Felipe Stakes.

To be able to make the minimize for Louisville, this $3.2-million FTSAUG colt by Into Mischief wants qualifying factors out of Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby.

It additionally would increase his inventory if these factors had been accrued through victory, as a result of in any other case Barnes can be within the uncommon place of attempting to win the Kentucky Derby with out having completed first in a two-turn race.

Way back to the beginning of the season, coach Bob Baffert has been evaluating Barnes favorably to the colt’s maternal grandsire, the 2015 champ American Pharoah.

However superlatives solely go to this point till a horse proves he can thrive over added floor. American Pharoah, in contrast, received three graded two-turn stakes at ages two and three earlier than sweeping the Triple Crown.

Coming off a 93-Beyer dismantling of the seven-furlong GII San Vicente Stakes area Jan. 4 and a pressure-taking, 105-Beyer runner-up effort within the San Felipe Stakes, Barnes drew submit 4 for the Santa Anita Derby.

7) RIVER THAMES (c, Maclean’s Music-Proportionality, by Discreet Cat) ‘TDN Rising Star’. O-CHC, Inc. and WinStar Farm LLC; B-CTR Stables, LLC (NY); T-Todd A. Pletcher. Gross sales historical past: $200,000 Ylg ’23 FTNAUG. Lifetime Report: GSP, 3-2-1-0, $164,400. Final begin: 2nd, Mar. 1 GII Fountain of Youth Stakes.

‘TDN Rising Star’ River Thames is predicted to be entered on Tuesday for Saturday’s Apr. 5 GI Blue Grass Stakes. This Todd Pletcher trainee will likely be getting a jockey change from John Velazquez to Irad Ortiz Jr.

This New York-bred delivered a good second-place strive, crushed solely a neck by Sovereignty, within the Fountain of Youth Stakes.

After successful his first two begins at six furlongs and over a one-turn mile at Gulfstream, River Thames flashed pace in his first strive round two turns. However after urgent the tempo on the within via the primary bend, John Velazquez backed off and switched him outdoors of the chief on the backstretch.

Roused to re-engage with three furlongs left, River Thames wrested management of the race off the ultimate flip. As soon as clear, he stayed on moderately nicely regardless of a momentary stray from focus which could have contributed to Sovereignty nailing him within the shadow of the wire.

8) RODRIGUEZ (c, Genuine-Cayala, by Cherokee Run) ‘TDN Rising Star’. O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Decided Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Tom J. Ryan, Waves Edge Capital LLC and Catherine Donovan; B-Kingswood Farm & David Egan (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Gross sales historical past: $485,000 Ylg KEESEP ’23. Lifetime Report: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $122,800. Final begin: third Mar. 1 GII San Felipe Stakes.

After Rodriguez completed second in his dash debut, he delivered knowledgeable, seven-length smackdown in a front-running, one-mile maiden win at Santa Anita Jan. 4.

Timed in 1:35.91, that 100-Beyer rating was .24 seconds sooner than a seasoned group of older allowance/non-obligatory claiming males coated the identical distance 5 races later. That victory earned this $485,000 KEESEP colt ‘TDN Rising Star’ standing.

Within the Feb. 1. GIII Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Rodriguez chased favored Citizen Bull, misplaced momentum when switching off the within mid-race, then re-rallied to get second behind his 2-year-old champion stablemate.

Within the Mar. 1 San Felipe Stakes, Rodriguez was outclassed however not disgraced when third, 11 1/4 lengths behind Journalism and Barnes. He flashed pace from the gate to stress Barnes, however regarded out of his consolation zone when a keyed-up 45-1 shot ranged to his outdoors coming into the backstretch, compelling Rodriguez to quicken stride to keep up place from between horses.

Getting again to freewheeling on the entrance finish could be the important thing for Rodriguez to succeed over 9 furlongs.

That was the simplest operating type for his sire, Genuine, who wired each the Kentucky Derby and the GI Breeders’ Cup Basic in 2020. Genuine was 5-for-5 in races the place he seized the lead straight out of the gate, however solely 1-for-3 in races by which he bought headed in some unspecified time in the future.

Rodriguez was entered for Saturday’s Wooden Memorial. He drew the rail with Mike Smith named to trip.

Coach Bob Baffert has solely made six begins at Aqueduct previously 5 years. Two had been with sophomores within the GIII Gotham Stakes in 2021 and 2022, and neither received.

It is conceivable that Rodriguez may be entered on Tuesday for Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, giving Baffert the chance to select the spot that seems most advantageous.

9) SANDMAN (c, Tapit-Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor) O-D. J. Steady LLC, St. Elias Steady, West Level Thoroughbreds and CJ Stables; B-Lothenbach Stables Inc (KY); T-Mark E. Casse. Gross sales Historical past: $1,200,000 2yo ’24 OBSMAR. Lifetime Report: GISW, 8-3-1-2, $1,254,595. Final begin: WON Mar. 29 GI Arkansas Derby.

When the 2 pacemakers in Saturday’s GI Arkansas Derby peeled off from the pack by 10 lengths down the backstretch in overzealous opening quarter-mile splits of :22.46 and :22.75, it was not a matter of if they’d come again to the sector, however which deep nearer would reel them in.

This $1.2-million OBSMAR grey was as much as the duty after developing quick along with his late runs when second and third earlier this winter in two Oaklawn prep stakes at 1 1/16 miles.

Off as the three.7-1 third alternative, Sandman rated from next-to-last within the nine-horse area, careened 5 large into the lane, then inhaled the caving leaders.

His solely competitors within the run to the wire was a seven-start maiden, however the not-fully-focused Sandman made even that seemingly easy job seem fraught with danger, as he veered sharply outward on the eighth pole when jockey Jose Ortiz utilized one stern left-handed crack of the crop.

Sandman then straightened out and ran nicely to the wire, successful by 2 1/2 lengths beneath regular dealing with (99 Beyer).

“He was a little shy from the whip from the left hand,” Ortiz mentioned post-win. “I could see that from the replays the last time. I tried one time and didn’t try it again. So he was rolling.”

Coach Mark Casse famous the trouble did not seem to take a lot out of Sandman.

“Jose said he didn’t take a deep breath when he pulled up,” Casse mentioned.

10) FINAL GAMBIT (c, Not This Time-Pachinko, by Tapit) O/B-Juddmonte (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Lifetime Report: GSW, 4-2-1-1, $520,639. Final begin: WON Mar. 22 GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes.

Ultimate Gambit made his debut in a Nov. 9 mile grass route at Churchill. Off at 3.7-1 odds, he bought pinballed on the break, jostled within the again third of a tightly packed area, misplaced momentum, then re-bid once more coming into the far flip. By higher stretch this grey was repeatedly hemmed atop the heels of horses. But Ultimate Gambit sparked anew to make up 5 lengths contained in the eighth pole, ending third earlier than galloping out nicely (60 Beyer).

This Brad Cox-trained homebred for Juddmonte subsequent ran Jan. 4 because the 1.25-1 favourite in a Tapeta mile at Turfway. He was forwardly positioned from submit 10 in a multi-horse scramble and assertively stalked a 44-1 pacemaker. Though Ultimate Gambit had the chief at his mercy turning for residence, he lacked a closing thrust to seal the deal and spent a very good portion of his stretch run gawking towards the grandstand (66 Beyer).

Third outing, on Feb. 15, this colt went off favored at 1.24-1 in a driving rainstorm in one other Turfway mile. He broke operating, indifferent himself means off the again, then circled the sector six deep. Ultimate Gambit once more had his consideration fixated to the skin, however he had constructed sufficient momentum to blow previous three tiring speedsters for the win (64 Beyer).

Solid adrift at 15-1 within the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes, Ultimate Gambit absorbed a bump on the break and once more took up residence on the again. Unhurried, he stoked a slow-burn, six-furlong transfer that combusted right into a nine-wide stretch kick. Ultimate Gambit did shy a number of occasions from rivals to his inside earlier than blowing previous them, opening up late to win by 3 1/2 lengths (90 Beyer).

This colt has some upside as a late-race menace, however to again him with full confidence, you’d should be prepared to financial institution that he’d be able to figuring issues out (by way of stretch focus) in his first race over dust in a 20-horse area.

11) TIZTASTIC (c, Tiz the Law-Keesha, by Tapit) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael B. Tabor and Derrick Smith; B-Capital Bloodstock (KY); T-Steven M. Asmussen. Gross sales historical past: $80,000 Ylg ’23 KEEJAN;  $335,000 Ylg ’23 KEESEP. Lifetime report: GSW, 8-3-1-2, $1,549,800. Final begin: WON Mar. 22 GII Louisiana Derby.

Tiztastic is slightly gentle within the numbers division, taking eight profession begins to lastly crack the 90-Beyer barrier with a 95 in his GII Louisiana Derby win. However in his favor are first rate showings in 5 straight two-turn graded dust stakes, and in his general eight-race physique of labor, he is by no means been worse than fifth or been crushed by greater than 6 1/2 lengths.

He figures to sit down off the tempo and roll late, however Tiztastic is certainly not a one-dimensional nearer. His previous performances recommend he will be efficient stalking (like when third within the GII Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes final November), and he has a contact extra expertise than most Derby contenders with racing in bigger fields (two 10-horse races, as soon as every in fields of 12 and 13).

It is true that the Louisiana Derby got here up gentle this 12 months and that traditionally, winners of that stakes have solely twice gone on to win the Kentucky Derby (Black Gold in 1924 and Grindstone in 1996).

But Tiztastic ran respectably in opposition to among the division’s heavier Japanese-based hitters final autumn, and he may evolve right into a wise-guy Derby choice because the race nears merely primarily based on expertise and flexibility.

12) BURNHAM SQUARE (g, Liam’s Map-Linda, by Scat Daddy) O/B-Whitham Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY); T-Ian R. Wilkes. Lifetime Report: GSW, 5-2-1-1, $222,130. Final begin: 4th Mar. 1 GII Fountain of Youth Stakes.

Burnham Sq. is an anticipated entrant for Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes. He is at the moment ranked twenty fourth with 30 Derby qualifying factors.

He was most just lately fourth because the 1.9-1 favourite, crushed three lengths by Sovereignty within the Mar. 1 Fountain of Youth Stakes.

Two begins again, within the Feb. 1 GIII Holy Bull Stakes, this Whitham Thoroughbreds homebred by Liam’s Map dropped again to final within the early going, then marched up on the fence with little coaxing.

When one of many pacemakers dropped again, Burnham Sq. was briefly blocked, however he cast his personal clear path, bumping calmly with a rival coming into the far flip whereas coming free from cowl within the 4 path.

Burnham Sq. put away the favored Tappan Road to win the Holy Bull, and that rival got here again this previous weekend to annex the Florida Derby.

This colt did beforehand orchestrate a nine-length maiden win round two turns at Gulfstream whereas main for many of the journey, so he is not essentially relegated to firing from off the tailgate.