2025 NFL draft: Judging overreactions to picks, team classes

There isn’t any single occasion on the hype-infused NFL calendar that lends itself extra totally to the idea of overreaction than the draft. Nearly each decide is examined as a make-or-break determination for the franchise that makes it, no matter all of the historic information about hit charges and any reminders issued about reining in expectations.

This yr, although … this yr has been particular. The 2025 draft featured a complete sub-industry of overreaction round one specific participant who ended up being the 144th decide.

When Spherical 1 handed Thursday evening and Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders was nonetheless on the board, Friday’s NFL discourse grew to become all about why. When the second and third rounds ended Friday evening and Sanders nonetheless hadn’t been drafted, the discourse was on hearth. Was this private? Had Sanders’ camp mismanaged the method to the purpose that groups have been hesitant to take him? 5 quarterbacks went within the first three rounds. One among them was Dillon Gabriel, who was ranked No. 217 general by ESPN’s Scouts Inc. One thing needed to be up, proper?

Finally, the Browns ended our lengthy nationwide nightmare after they traded as much as take Sanders with the sixth decide of the fifth spherical. Cleveland had lengthy made sense as a Sanders vacation spot, however because the Browns have been the crew that took Gabriel on the tail finish of Spherical 3, Saturday opened with some skepticism about whether or not Sanders was nonetheless a chance.

Cleveland’s quarterback room now consists of Deshaun Watson, Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Gabriel and Sanders. That is three first-round picks and two rookies, which is form of wonderful whenever you step again and give it some thought. The Browns even have been thought-about a attainable commerce vacation spot for veteran Kirk Cousins, who stays on the Falcons’ roster as a really costly projected backup to Michael Penix Jr.

How that each one kinds itself out stays to be seen, however at the very least Sanders is aware of the place he will get to go to work and attempt to show to the NFL that he is higher than the No. 144 decide. He additionally will get the privilege of kicking off our annual draft overreactions column:

NFL draft protection:
Kiper: Day 2 wrap | Spherical 1 winners | Massive Board
Decide recap | Decide evaluation | Spherical 1 questions

By Saturday, Shedeur Sanders would have been higher off going undrafted

This was a sentiment I heard from a number of individuals within the NFL on Saturday morning, as soon as Sanders hadn’t been picked within the first three rounds. The considering was that going undrafted would have allowed him to select his personal crew and negotiate his personal contract. The 144th decide in final yr’s draft bought a four-year deal price a complete of $4.369 million. Undrafted gamers signal three-year offers and subsequently can get to free company earlier than drafted gamers can.

Had Sanders not been drafted Saturday, he may have steered his option to a spot the place he may compete for the beginning job and, if he received it and performed effectively, may have been in place for a big-money extension two years from now. Yearly, there are gamers (and brokers) who get to the sixth and seventh rounds and begin hoping they do not get picked as a result of going undrafted offers them extra freedom.

The decision: OVERREACTION

It is an attention-grabbing thought, for certain. And if Sanders had been picked by a crew such because the Chiefs, Bengals or Chargers — groups with cemented beginning quarterbacks in place — I in all probability would have agreed with it. However Cleveland gives Sanders a chance to compete for and win the beginning job straight away.

Watson, who had one other surgical procedure on his proper Achilles tendon, may not play a lot this season, if in any respect. Unseating Flacco, Pickett and Gabriel should not be an inconceivable activity if Sanders is the pro-ready prospect he believes himself to be.

This can be a younger man who, due to the household into which he was born and the way in which his profession has been curated to date, has not recognized life as any form of underdog. It stays to be seen how he’ll deal with it, however we have seen loads of quarterbacks (and gamers at different positions) who’ve used their draft tumbles as gasoline and motivation. If Sanders can do this, the Browns supply him an opportunity to make lots of people look silly.

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Drafting Jaxson Dart will save the roles of Giants coach Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen — at the very least for one yr

The Giants traded up within the first spherical to get Dart, the quarterback they determined was their favourite on this draft (outdoors of Cam Ward) after a full and thorough analysis of the sphere. Dart does not have to start out straight away; the Giants signed veterans Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston for that motive. After lastly getting out from below the Daniel Jones decide/extension fiasco, Daboll has the chance to groom and develop the quarterback of his selecting.

Whether or not Dart performs Week 1, Week 9 or under no circumstances in 2025, it stands to motive the Giants will wish to give Daboll and Schoen an extended sufficient runway with the child to see if he could be their quarterback of the long run — even when that runway extends into 2026.

The decision: OVERREACTION

It is a logical conclusion to achieve, and it may become the case. However historical past tells us drafting a first-round quarterback is completely no assure of job safety. This time final yr, Matt Eberflus (Bears) and Jerod Mayo (Patriots) have been coaches of groups that drafted first-round quarterbacks, and each are gone. (As are their offensive coordinators, earlier than you come at me with that time.)

Frank Reich (Panthers), City Meyer (Jaguars), Matt Nagy (Bears, once more), Anthony Lynn (Chargers), Pat Shurmur (Giants), Jay Gruden (Washington), Hue Jackson (Browns), Todd Bowles (Jets) and Steve Wilks (Cardinals) all have been fired inside a yr of choosing a first-round quarterback, and that listing solely goes again to 2018.

The Daboll/Dart connection may very effectively be what resurrects the Giants franchise. The coach and the QB each seem to have the expertise to make it work. But when 2025 goes badly, there’s loads of latest historical past that tells us hope for the long run is not sufficient to avoid wasting a coach’s job.

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The Jaguars have a brand new coach and GM, and the daring commerce up for Hunter on the primary evening of the draft alerts an aggressive method with the aim of adjusting the fortunes of a crew that picks within the high 5 method, method, method too usually. However whereas GM James Gladstone and coach Liam Coen have the mandate and talent to vary plenty of issues, they’re roughly caught with Lawrence, whose contract consists of $37 million totally assured in 2026 and $29 million totally assured in 2027.

So the rationale to select Hunter, the two-way star out of Colorado whom they’ll deploy as each a large receiver and a cornerback, is at the very least partly to supply extra passing-game assist for Lawrence, together with good 2024 first-round decide Brian Thomas Jr.

The decision: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Lawrence may not have delivered on his stratospheric promise simply but — he has thrown 69 landing passes and 46 interceptions in his first 4 seasons — however he is removed from a misplaced trigger. He does not even flip 26 till October. He must get and keep persistently wholesome, and it is robust to see how Hunter might help with that. Assuming Lawrence is on the sphere, he ought to take pleasure in having Hunter as a dependable downfield goal.

Plus, to no matter extent the face-of-the-franchise strain that comes with being a No. 1 decide and getting a $55 million-per-year contract extension has affected Lawrence, Hunter will assist with that too.

Given how particular a participant Hunter is, and the chance that his two-way skills will captivate the league and the Jaguars’ fan base, he has likelihood to develop into probably the most talked-about participant on the crew in brief order. Perhaps he is the form of consideration vacuum who eases a number of the strain on Lawrence to perform because the franchise savior.

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The Steelers blew it by not drafting a quarterback earlier than Spherical 6

Many have been shocked when the Steelers chosen defensive deal with Derrick Harmon with the No. 21 decide, given their obvious want for quarterback and the truth that just one had been chosen at that time. They did not decide once more till the nineteenth decide of the third spherical as a result of that they had traded their second-round decide for DK Metcalf, and by then, solely two extra quarterbacks had been chosen. They went with working again Kaleb Johnson there. Within the fourth spherical, Pittsburgh took edge rusher Jack Sawyer, and within the fifth, it took defensive deal with Yahya Black.

With Mason Rudolph and Skylar Thompson as the one quarterbacks on the roster, and the franchise nonetheless awaiting a solution from veteran free agent Aaron Rodgers, the Steelers did not choose a quarterback till Will Howard with the ninth decide of the sixth spherical. You’ll be able to “But Tom Brady” me all you need, and certain, Howard may become one thing, however decide No. 185 is Backup Nation.

The decision: OVERREACTION

I simply can’t rip the Steelers for not forcing a quarterback. They did precisely that three years in the past after they chosen Kenny Pickett within the first spherical of a draft wherein no different quarterbacks went earlier than the third spherical. Whiffing on Pickett is an enormous a part of the rationale they discover themselves of their present quarterback pickle. If there had been a man there at No. 21 — and even at No. 83 — whom they honestly believed in as their long-term franchise QB, they need to completely have taken him. However clearly, there was not, and the Steelers have repeatedly informed us they consider they nonetheless have avenues for addressing the place between now and the beginning of the season.

They nonetheless consider there is a good likelihood they find yourself with Rodgers. If they do not get him, they may ring up the Falcons and ask about Kirk Cousins. Rudolph is a participant they like much more than individuals outdoors of their constructing appear to, and so they level to the truth that he helped rescue their season and cause them to the playoffs simply two years in the past.

Subsequent yr’s draft quarterback class is predicted to be richer in expertise than this yr’s was, and if they’ll patch the 2025 season along with some mixture of Rodgers/Cousins/Rudolph-type veterans, it is attainable they’ll repair the long-term problem a yr from now. It is the Steelers, everyone. We all know they will discover a option to win extra video games than they lose.

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Kirk Cousins is caught in Atlanta for yet one more yr

After signing for $100 million in assured cash with the Falcons in free company final yr, Cousins was shocked when Atlanta drafted Michael Penix Jr. within the high 10 of the 2024 draft. Cousins’ poor efficiency and the Falcons’ late-season slide led to him being benched for Penix, who’s Atlanta’s projected beginning quarterback for 2025.

The crew didn’t launch Cousins forward of free company and has mentioned publicly it is comfy with him being Penix’s backup. Privately, the Falcons have entertained commerce proposals from different groups however have to date insisted on buying groups selecting up a good portion of the $37.5 million in assured cash nonetheless remaining on his contract, and that is an enormous motive he hasn’t been dealt.

With free company and now the draft having come and gone, it is honest to wonder if Cousins will find yourself being traded this offseason or whether or not he’ll have to attend till subsequent spring to get unfastened from his present scenario.

The decision: OVERREACTION

It isn’t over! The Steelers nonetheless want a man. Perhaps the Browns aren’t executed gathering QBs. Perhaps the Colts get via OTAs and do not feel nice about Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones. Someone, someplace may get damage in minicamp and open up a spot.

Cousins’ contract features a full no-trade clause, and even when the Falcons got here up with a commerce, he wasn’t going to approve one till after the draft as a result of he did not need the identical factor to occur to him this yr that occurred final yr. Now, with the draft over, he and Atlanta can regroup and see whether or not there’s something on the market that is smart. It is nonetheless attainable there’s.

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Caleb Williams goes to be within the MVP dialog this season

The No. 1 decide in final yr’s draft, Williams and the Bears endured a tough 2024 season that noticed coach Matt Eberflus get fired earlier than it was over. Chicago completed 5-12 and was the one crew in its division that didn’t attain the playoffs. The Bears employed offensive coordinator Ben Johnson away from division-rival Detroit to be their coach and hopefully discover a option to get the perfect out of Williams in 2025 and shifting ahead. They beefed up the inside of their offensive line straight away in free company. And so they used their first three picks of this draft on offensive gamers.

The aim is clearly to make life simpler for Williams as he continues to develop, and to discover a option to problem for a playoff spot within the league’s hardest division.

The decision: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Whereas Johnson is clearly unproven as a head coach, he has established himself as one of many league’s most inventive and efficient offensive play-designers and playcallers. The Bears’ offense already had proficient pass-catching choices in huge receivers D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze, tight finish Cole Kmet and working again D’Andre Swift, and the primary two rounds of this draft introduced them tight finish Colston Loveland and huge receiver Luther Burden III. For good measure, they used the second of their two second-round picks on offensive deal with Ozzy Trapilo.

If the safety holds up, Williams goes to have a ton of locations he can go along with the ball on any specific play, and with Johnson drawing the performs up, this might be as thrilling an offense as there’s within the league. There’s at all times a crew that goes from final place to first place in its division from one yr to the subsequent.

And whereas the presence of the Lions, Vikings and Packers of their division may effectively stop the Bears from being that, in the event that they enhance sufficient to contend for a playoff spot, it’s going to in all probability be as a result of Williams and all of these offensive targets have lit up the scoreboard week in and week out.